College football winners and losers: 8 teams can feel very confident about their playoff hopes

On By Littum

The muddy College Football Playoff picture is slowly becoming clearer.

Week 14 followed a chaotic Week 13 with more craziness. No. 2 Ohio State lost 13-10 to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite, while No. 6 Miami blew a 21-point lead against Syracuse for its second loss in three weeks.

As we see it, at least eight teams can feel very confident about their playoff hopes entering conference championship weekend, while the other four spots can be filled by teams that win their conference title games.

Miami, meanwhile, is now the biggest CFP wild card.

Here’s a look at how we view the playoff contenders after the conclusion of the 2024 regular season.

  • Oregon (12-0)

  • Texas (11-1)

  • Penn State (11-1)

  • Notre Dame (11-1)

  • SMU (11-1)

  • Indiana (11-1)

  • Ohio State (10-2)

  • Tennessee (10-2)

Let’s start with the obvious: Oregon is the only top-level undefeated team in college football and can lose by 42 to Penn State in the Big Ten title game and still be safely in the field. Penn State, meanwhile, clinched a spot in the conference championship thanks to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan.

The Buckeyes aren’t playing for the conference title, but are still in the field at 10-2 as a major. It’s hard to see Ohio State falling past No. 8 after Saturday’s loss. The same goes for Tennessee after the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. UT isn’t playing for a conference title next week, but at 10-2, with a win over Alabama, the Volunteers can feel very good about their chances.

Notre Dame effectively clinched its spot in the playoffs with a win over USC and moved to 11-1. Indiana has the same record after beating Purdue. We’re more bullish on Indiana’s chances than others simply because of the chaos that has unfolded across college football over the past two weekends. There’s no way the committee leaves out a power conference team with one loss because of the rest of the CFB landscape.

SMU can clinch a top-4 seed with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game, and a loss shouldn’t penalize the Mustangs too much. It is very hard to see SMU out of the playoffs.

Texas survived a mistake-filled second half against Texas A&M to earn a berth in the SEC title game against Georgia. Even if the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns again in a week, Texas should be in the postseason.

We’re pretty sure Georgia is in the playoff no matter what happens in Atlanta in a week. But the Bulldogs are here because we still haven’t gotten a good insight into the committee’s thinking. If it came down to a two-loss Miami and a three-loss Georgia, is the committee guaranteed to pick Georgia?

Clemson lost its third game of the season Saturday to South Carolina. The only way the Tigers are in the playoffs is if they beat SMU.

Boise State and UNLV will face off for the Mountain West title. If the Broncos win, they have a big chance at the No. 4. If UNLV wins, it could be the No. 1 seed. 12, but it will be in the playoffs.

Arizona State clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game with a blowout win over rival Arizona. The Sun Devils will play either Iowa State or Colorado for the Big 12 playoff berth. Iowa State took down Kansas State Saturday night and is in if BYU beats Houston late Saturday night. If BYU loses, Colorado will play Arizona State for the conference title.

If SMU beats Clemson, the Hurricanes are set to potentially be the last team in the field. Miami might have been in first place with a win over Syracuse on Saturday, but the Hurricanes blew a 21-0 first-half lead in a 42-38 loss. The loss is Miami’s second in the last three games and means they will have to watch the ACC title game and all other conference title games and hope for favorable results.

  • Alabama (9-3)

  • Ole Miss (9-3)

  • South Carolina (9-3)

It is extremely difficult to see a scenario where any of the three three-loss teams from the SEC make the playoffs. All three teams won to end the regular season, but their only hope is to jump to the front of this line and hope the committee drops Miami under them while SMU beats Clemson. It seems very, very unlikely. The only way we see a three-loss team make the playoffs is via a conference championship.

Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.

Michigan: How much does a win over Ohio State cost over a disappointing season for the Wolverines? Michigan is just the second defending national champion in five decades to not win at least eight regular-season games, but Wolverines fans will be on edge for weeks after a 13-10 win over Ohio State on Saturday. The win dropped Ohio State coach Ryan Day’s record against Michigan to 1-4 and gives Michigan coach Sherrone Moore two wins in two seasons over the Buckeyes following his stint as Michigan’s interim coach a season ago.

Baylor: What a turnaround for the Bears. Baylor was 2-4 after a 43-21 loss to Iowa State, and it was worth wondering if coach Dave Aranda would return for the 2025 season. Well, Baylor finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak and punctuated it with a 45-17 victory over a hot Kansas team on Saturday. Sawyer Robertson was 23-of-31 passing for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Bryson Washington rushed 28 times for 192 yards and two scores, while Dawson Pendergrass had 11 carries for 104 yards.

Duke: What a first season in Durham for Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils scored 20 straight points in the second half en route to a 23-17 victory over Wake Forest. Duke won the game on the final play when Maalik Murphy hit Jordan Moore for a 39-yard TD as time expired.

The Blue Devils finished the season with three straight wins after a 22-point loss to Miami and finished in a four-way tie for fourth in the ACC with Syracuse, Louisville and Georgia Tech.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are one loss to Alabama away from being a lock for the College Football Playoff. It’s been a great season in Columbia as South Carolina capped off a 9-3 season with a 17-14 rivalry win over Clemson on Saturday. LaNorris Sellers has made an incredible leap throughout the 2024 season, rushing for two scores on his way to 166 yards on 16 carries against the Tigers.

Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights guaranteed themselves a winning season with a 41-14 blowout win at Michigan State. The win also denied the Spartans a bowl berth as Rutgers scored 34 straight points after Michigan State took a 7-0 lead. Rutgers’ loss to Illinois in Week 13 could have been extremely demoralizing, but the team instead took advantage of three turnovers on downs by the Spartans and will have a winning record in three straight seasons for the first time since George W. Bush’s second term.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels didn’t give Mack Brown a game-winning layup. NC State became bowl-eligible with a 35-30 win at North Carolina on Saturday when a fight broke out on the field after the game when NC State players tried to plant a flag at midfield that Michigan attempted earlier in the day.

UNC fumbled twice and committed nine penalties as it was outscored 22-10 in the fourth quarter. The game-winning score came with 25 seconds left when Hollywood Smothers scored his second TD of the game.

North Carolina finishes the season 6-6, and it’s unclear whether Brown, who was fired this week, will coach in the bowl game.

Tulane: The Green Wave entered the final week of the season with a chance to reach the College Football Playoff and the opportunity to host the AAC title game against Army. Instead, Tulane’s playoff hopes are gone, and it’s headed to play Army on Friday thanks to a 34-24 home loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving.

Tulane turned the ball over three times — including on a Mario Williams fumble after a deep end in the second half — and had just 15 first downs to Memphis’ 26. The Tigers rushed 46 times for 242 yards as Mario Anderson had 24 carries for 177 yards and a score. Memphis finishes the season 10-2, but missed the AAC title game because both of its losses came in conference play.

UAB: It was a brutal way to end the season for the Blazers. UAB had a chance to beat Charlotte on the final play of the game, but Jonah Delange missed a 35-yard field goal as time expired. However, a personal foul penalty gave him another chance. And it also made the kick eight yards shorter. Now you know where we’re going with this. The second kick was not good either, and Charlotte won 29-27. UAB finishes the season 3-9 and is now 7-17 in the Trent Dilfer era.

West Virginia: It’s not clear how certain Neal Brown is at West Virginia with Jimbo Fisher looking for work, and it’s hard to see how Saturday’s 52-15 loss at Texas Tech helps Brown’s case. WVU won three of its last five games to become bowl eligible, but was dominated on Saturday. Tech had 569 yards of offense and was 9-of-12 on third downs. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over three times.