CFP rankings betting reaction – Possibility of conference chaos

As the college football season lurches toward its dramatic end, the playoff landscape continues to shift with each passing week. Among the most notable climbers (from a betting perspective) are Miami and SMU, both jumping into the top 10 and seeing their odds to make the playoffs improve dramatically.

In this volatile environment, where rankings and odds seem to be in constant flux, players and fans alike are left to ponder: Is there value to be found in the chaos?

As we delve into the intricacies of the current playoff picture and explore potential betting strategies, one question looms large: In a season defined by unpredictability, why would the chaos stop now?

Here are the biggest moves and betting implications to emerge from the latest rankings:

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Moves up the leaderboard

no. 6 Miami (-280 to make the playoffs, +200 to miss)
Last week: No. 11

No. 10 SMU (-170 to make the playoffs, +135 to miss)
Last week: no. 13

Both Miami and SMU have seen their playoff prospects improve significantly, which is reflected in their shortened odds. The upcoming ACC Championship game looms large, with Miami needing a win over Syracuse to clinch the spot, while SMU has already clinched its spot. The winner will likely claim the third seed in the CFP, adding significance to the matchup.

Recent SEC upsets have benefited both teams, opening up playoff spots and improving the ACC’s standings. Interestingly, there is a slight discrepancy between the rankings and odds, with Miami’s -280 odds contrasting with SMU’s -170, despite being only one spot apart. This discrepancy could be due to factors such as remaining schedules, perceived strength in potential championship matchups or bias against Miami’s Heisman candidate quarterback Cam Ward.

With both teams now favored for the playoffs, that suggests the ACC could almost make it, too. But if Miami is expected to win the ACC, there might be value in taking SMU at +135 to miss out on. SMU’s chances hinge heavily on winning the ACC championship, and other conference champions like Boise State or the Big 12 winner could potentially leapfrog an ACC runner-up finish. For this scenario, the ACC champion must clearly outperform the runner-up, while other conference champions make compelling cases to the selection committee.

A Week 14 loss to Cal followed by an ACC Championship loss would eliminate SMU from playoff contention.

Betting Considerations: Why Would The Mayhem Stop Now?

While some of these options may seem outlandish, they present interesting ways to exploit the volatility of the endgame.

Big 12

The Colorado Buffaloes’ path to the title game, though a long shot at +650, presents an interesting betting angle. The Buffaloes need two of the three — Arizona State, BYU or Iowa State — to lose to get to the Big 12 Championship game. A money-line parlay on underdogs Houston (+425 vs. BYU) and Kansas State (+115 vs. Iowa State) would pay +1030, providing better value than backing Colorado outright.

SEC

The Texas Longhorns’ situation is particularly intriguing. With odds for Texas to make or miss the playoffs surprisingly unlisted, it might be worth backing Texas A&M at +180 on the moneyline for its decisive matchup. A Longhorns loss would have a significant impact on their playoff chances, potentially eliminating them from consideration despite currently holding the No. 3 CFP rank.

acc

Even Miami, favored by 11 points this weekend, isn’t safe from upset potential. Syracuse at +300 might be worth considering given Miami’s history of close calls this season.

Parlay potential

For those looking for a high-risk, high-reward option, a “let the madness continue” parlay that combines Syracuse (+300), Kansas State (+115), Texas A&M (+180) and Houston (+425) offers ) astronomical + 12545 odds. While extremely unlikely, it embodies the spirit of betting on continued chaos.

Syracuse (+300) over Miami
Kansas State (+125) over Iowa State
Texas A&M (+200) over Texas
Houston (+450) over BYU

Any combination of these underdog bets can make for a high-risk, high-reward parlay if you’re looking for a big payout. The idea of ​​backing the underdogs directly, either individually or in a parlay, as an alternative to the make-or-miss playoff odds offers could potentially provide better odds and higher payouts compared to the current playoff odds.

As always, these high-risk bets should be treated with caution. The college football landscape is notoriously unpredictable, and betting on multiple upsets is a cool strategy. For those who believe this season’s chaos is far from over, these possibilities provide food for thought in what could be an exciting end to the regular season.