Big 12 Championship Scenarios Explained: How Colorado, Arizona State and More Can Reach 2024 Title Game

On By Littum

Colorado helped itself on Black Friday in the race for the Big 12 championship, but nothing will be decided until Saturday.

There are four teams with two conference losses: No. 25 Colorado (9-3, 7-2), No. 16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2), No. 18 Iowa State (9-2, 6- 2 ), and No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2) after Colorado blew out Oklahoma State 52-0 on Friday thanks to five Shedeur Sanders touchdown passes. Heisman favorite Travis Hunter caught three of them and also had an interception.

If at least one of the remaining teams also wins this weekend, the conference championship picture will remain clear. If all three of those teams lose, however, it opens the door for the five three-loss teams, including No. 24 Kansas State (8-3, 5-3), Baylor (7-4, 5-3), TCU (7-4, 5-3), Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3) and West Virginia ( 6-5, 5-3).

MORE: CFP, bowl projections after Week 13

Who Will Play for the Big 12 Championship? Here’s a closer look:

MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 14’s Top 25 plays

Big 12 Championship Scenarios 2024

The Big 12’s playoff picture begins to take shape with Colorado’s win over Oklahoma State. A look at Big 12 tie-breaker scenarios are available here. Let’s start with the teams with the easiest path. Here’s who these teams are playing this weekend:

no. 25 Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 0
No. 16 Arizona State at Arizona 15:30. Fox
Kansas State at Iowa State No. 17 19:30 Fox
Houston at no. 19 BYU 22:15 ESPN

BYU is a double-digit favorite. Iowa State is home for “Farmageddon,” and the Sun Devils are 8.5-point favorites in the Territorial Cup against Arizona.

Colorado (10-2, 7-2, Big 12)

  • Colorado has three trails. Path No. 1: Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State all lose on Saturday.
  • Trail no. 2: The Buffs need losses of two of Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State.
  • Trail no. 3: If Arizona State and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship games will be Colorado and Iowa State.
  • Colorado’s losses to Kansas State and Kansas hurt them in the Big 12 tiebreaker for No. 2, which is the winning percentage against all regular conference opponents.

Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)

  • Arizona State clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against Arizona State AND loss of two at Iowa State, BYU OR a four-way tie between Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado at 7-2.
  • There’s a complicated scenario where Arizona State doesn’t make it. If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship games will be Colorado and Iowa State.
  • If Texas Tech beats West Virginia in the above scenario, then the championship game would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

Iowa State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)

  • Iowa State clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against Kansas State AND losses by two of Arizona State, BYU and Colorado OR a four-way tie between Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado at 7-2. The Cyclones would hold the edge on BYU in cumulative conference winning percentage at the time.
  • If Iowa State, BYU and Colorado win AND Arizona State loses, then Iowa State and BYU play in the Big 12 championship game.
  • There are a few complicated scenarios where Arizona State loses and Iowa State benefits. If Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State win AND BYU loses AND Texas Tech beats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas State AND Cincinnati beats TCU, then the Big 12 championship games will be Colorado and Iowa State.
  • If Texas Tech beats West Virginia in that scenario, then the championship game would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

BYU (9-2, 6-2, Big 12)

  • BYU clinches a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win against Houston AND losses to Arizona State and Iowa State.
  • If BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win AND Arizona State loses, then BYU and Iowa State will play in the Big 12 championship game.
  • If BYU, Arizona State and Colorado win AND Iowa State loses, then BYU and Arizona State play in the Big 12 championship game.

What happens if three teams lose out of Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State?

Let’s look at the scenarios where all three teams lose on Saturday with the help of MRed’s Big 12 calculator.

  • If Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU lose, then the most likely Big 12 championship game will be Colorado vs. Kansas State OR Baylor depending on the results of the other Big 12 matchups, which include TCU-Cincinnati, Kansas-Baylor, Utah-UCF and West Virginia-Texas Tech.

Big 12 regular opponents

Here are the results from Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State that would be used to determine common-opponent winning percentage — the other Big 12 tiebreaker.

TEAM BYU COLO. ISU ASU
Arizona W 41-19 W 34-7 – Nov 30
Arizona State L 28-23 – – L 24-14
Baylor W 34-28 W 38-31 W 43-21 –
BYU – – – W 28-23
UCF W 37-24 W 48-21 W 38-35 W 35-31
Cincinnati – W 34-23 W 34-17 –
Colorado – – – –
Houston Nov 30 – W 20-0 –
Iowa State – – – –
Kansas L 17-13 L 37-21 L 45-36 W 35-31
Kansas State W 38-9 L 31-28 Nov 30 W 24-14
Oklahoma State W 38-35 W 52-0 – W 42-21
TCU – – – –
Texas Tech – W 41-27 L 23-22 L 30-22
Utah W 22-21 W 49-24 W 31-28 W 27-19
West Virginia – – W 28-16 –
RECORD 6-2 6-2 6-2 6-2

Who will play in the Big 12 Championship?

For all combinations, the Sporting News Week 14 predictions predict Arizona State to beat Arizona 38-23 and Iowa State to beat Kansas State 33-28. We also have Colorado beating Oklahoma State 38-24 and BYU beating Houston 33-14.

That’s the most far-fetched scenario possible and would put Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game as a result of the four-way tie at the top.

The Big 12 championship game is Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be shown on ABC.