Could Group of Five Keep Colorado Out of the College Football Playoff?

On November 30, 2024By Littum

Colorado football has enjoyed a resurgence in his second season under coach Deion Sanders.

A program that hadn’t been nationally relevant for much of the 21st century became one of college football’s most watched teams in 2023 when Buffaloes got off to a 3-0 start before flaming out the rest of the way, dropping eight of their last nine games.

This season, the breathless media attention has paid off on the field.

Led by Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado is 8-3 heading into its regular season finale Friday against Oklahoma State at Folsom Field in Boulder. Although they fell out of US LBM Coaches Poll after a 37-21 loss last Saturday at Kansas, the Buffs are in a four-way tie for the top Big 12 position, theoretically giving them a path to the conference championship game and from there a spot in the College Football Playoff.

While Colorado’s season has undoubtedly been a success, it enters the final week of the regular season with some uncertainty as to what may await it after its matchup with Mike Gundy’s Cowboys.

Here’s what you need to know about the Buffs’ road to the Big 12 championship game and why a win might not guarantee them a spot in the 12-team playoff:

Can Colorado make it to the Big 12 Championship?

The Buffs still have a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game, although they will need help getting there.

Colorado is tied for no. 15 at Arizona State, no. 17 Iowa State and no. 20 BYU atop the conference standings, with each team holding a 6-2 record in league play. The Buffs haven’t played any of those three teams this season, making a head-to-head tiebreaker moot.

As things stand, Sanders’ team has one few paths to get to Arlington, Texas, all of which require a win against Oklahoma State:

At least two of the other three first-place teams must lose, giving the Buffs either an independent first-place spot or a first-place tie with a 7-2 record.
BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, which would put Colorado in a three-way tie with Iowa State and Arizona State, but would send the Buffs to the Big 12 championship game against Cyclones as a result of conference tiebreaks.
BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia and either Baylor or Cincinnati lose, pushing the Buffs into a title game with Arizona State.

Could Colorado win the Big 12 and miss the College Football Playoff?

Believe it or not, it is a possibility.

The 12-team College Football Playoff reserves spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions, with the top four winners byes in the first round to the quarterfinals. When the expanded playoff was first conceived, it was widely believed that the champion of a Power Four conference would effectively be guaranteed a spot in the field, especially given that there are only nine viable FBS conferences after the breakup of the Pac-12 into only two teams.

As this season has shown, that’s not a safe bet.

Every team in the Big 12 has at least two losses. Its highest-rated team in recent playoff selection committees, Arizona State, is No. 16, five spots behind Boise State and just one spot ahead of No. 17 Tulane in the latest CFP top 25. Meanwhile, Big Ten-leading Oregon is no. 1, SEC-leading Texas is no. 3 and Miami, the top-ranked ACC team, is No. 6, putting each of these Power Five leagues in a safe position to be represented in the playoffs.

If Boise State goes undefeated the rest of the way and wins the Mountain West Conference, it would finish with fewer losses than Colorado. In that scenario, the Buffs would be 10-3, while they Broncos would be 12-1, allowing the Broncos to receive the fourth and final first-round bye.

As things stand now, Colorado, the No. 25 in the playoffs, 14 spots behind Boise State.

However Buffaloes received a gift from Memphis on Thursday after the Tigers upset Tulane, moving them to 9-3 on the season. Assuming Colorado beats Oklahoma State on Friday and gets the help it needs to play for the Big 12 championship, it would still be in play to clinch the final automatic playoff spot in the 12-team bracket ahead of the AAC champion .

That scenario is contingent on several factors, including how Tulane and Colorado fare in their hypothetical conference title games. It will also likely require the CFP selection committee to drop Green Wave below Colorado in the penultimate set of rankings.

The Buffs still have a path to the playoffs, but they — or whoever ends up winning the Big 12 — have some obstacles in their way.

Big 12 Championship Tiebreakers

Like the SEC and Big Ten, the newly expanded Big 12 does not have divisions, meaning the top two teams in the reconfigured 16-team league make it to the conference championship.

Since Colorado needs help getting to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, here’s a look the various stages of the conferenceto break the ties in the league standings:

The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
The tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all regular conference opponents.
The tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the second highest ranked common opponent in the standings (based on the record of all games played in the conference) continuing through the standings.
The tied teams will be compared based on combined winning percentage in conference play for conference opponents.
The tied teams will be compared based on total wins in a 12-game season.
The representative will be selected based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric) after the final weekend of regular season games.
The representative will be chosen by a coin toss.