Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than last year, but the West has the most expensive grocery bills

Frozen turkeys are displayed for sale at a grocery store on November 14, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Some of the prices on grocery store shelves may have been on an upward trajectory, but overall, Americans are expected to pay less for their Thanksgiving dinners for the second year in a row.

It is according to American Farm Bureau Federationwhich has followed the fare of Thanksgiving classics for the past 39 years. This year, a meal for 10 will cost about $58.08, the study found, down about 5% from 2023. But that’s still 19% higher than pre-pandemic prices.

But western states will have a bill that is 14% more expensive than the rest of the country, the federation wrote. Out West, a classic dinner for 10 people will be around $67.05 this Thanksgiving. The holiday meal is expected to be cheapest in the South at about $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36 and the Midwest at $58.90.

In the West, grocery and convenience store food prices are likely to increase about 2.5% this year compared to 2023 levels, according to Dave Davis, president and CEO of Utah Food Industry. But food inflation, excluding restaurants, he said, is moving in a good direction.

“Because of the big inflation that we saw during the pandemic, and even though things were winding down with the pandemic, we’re not back to kind of pre-pandemic levels,” Davis said Tuesday. “And frankly, inflation, as it tends to do, always goes up.”

Restaurants can see around a 4.7% increase by the end of the year. But for grocery stores, the increase is at a manageable level, he said.

“You want to see inflation to be where wage growth is outpacing inflation by just a little bit,” Davis said.

What was measured

For one week, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visited their local grocery store in person or virtually to collect the prices of turkey, stuffing cubes, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipped cream and whole milk, the study said. They looked for the best possible prices, but didn’t use any special promotional coupons or bundled purchase deals.

They found that most of these items fell in price. But four of them – dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipped cream and cubed stuffing – were up.

Turkey, the centerpiece of the feast, which accounted for 44% of the price calculated by customers this year, saw costs fall 6% compared to 2023. That’s an anomaly, the economists who wrote the study said, because bird flu has caused a drop in available turkeys , but demand for them has also fallen, which lowers prices.

Anecdotally, Davis said he has not heard Utah Food Industry members talk about any significant increases in the cost of turkeys. Since it is most people’s main dish, Davis estimates that the numbers in Utah are similar to those found in the study.

“Everyone has their own preferences for what Thanksgiving dinner is going to look like. I think our turkey costs have been pretty good and pretty much in line with those numbers,” Davis said.

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Bird flu caused an increase in egg prices for about a year in the state, he said. But they are “back on trend”. And things are running pretty smoothly for shoppers looking for last-minute items on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Both Davis and American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall acknowledged that many are hurting because of inflationary pressures. But, they said, there is something to be thankful for this holiday; food in the country is plentiful and one of the most affordable in the world.

“To maintain that, we need a strong farm bill that allows Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” Duvall said in a press release. “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who grow crops and livestock will ensure that farmers can survive tough economic times and continue to provide food for America’s families, not just for the holidays, but year-round.”

The federal farm bill, which sets farm and conservation policy for the next five years, is stalled after Congress let it expire September 30, as the election approached. If a new bill or an extension is not passed at the end of the yearthe benefits it covers (including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP) will run out.

As for Utah as a whole, Davis said, there is no food shortage, and retailers are doing their best to get people through the holidays.

“Sometimes it can be frustrating, especially if you need an item at the last minute and that item may not be available. And so be patient and be patient with your fellow buyers as well,” Davis said. “And keep your eyes open. Many times around the Thanksgiving holiday, many retailers have sales that can benefit you and your family.”

Individual prices

• 16-pound turkey: $25.67 or $1.68 per pound (down 6.1%)

• 14 ounces diced stuffing mix: $4.08 (up 8.2%)

• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (down 2.9%)

• Half pint of whipped cream: $1.81 (up 4.7%)

• 1 pound frozen peas: $1.73 (down 8.1%)

• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $4.16 (up 8.4%)

• Miscellaneous Ingredients to Prepare the Meal: $3.75 (down 5.1%)

• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.15 (down 6.5%)

• 1 gallon whole milk: $3.21 (down 14.3%)

• 3 pounds sweet potatoes: $2.93 (down 26.2%)

• 1-pound vegetable tray (carrots and celery): $0.84 (down 6.4%)

• 12-ounce bag fresh cranberries: $2.35 (up 11.8%)

Source: American Farm Bureau Federation