NFL Power Rankings Enter Week 13: How Can Saquon Barkley Break QB Lock on MVP?

If Saquon Barkley dreams of winning the NFL MVP, maybe he should call Cooper Kupp.

In 2021, Kupp had one of the great individual seasons in league history. He won the receiving triple crown with a ridiculous 145 catches-1,947 yards-16 touchdowns line. And for that, he got one NFL MVP vote. Aaron Rodgers won in what was ultimately a forgettable season by him.

Kupp was probably not surprised. The NFL MVP changed in 2014 as JJ Watt was clearly the best player in the league but lost the MVP to an ultimately forgettable season from Rodgers. That’s when it fully became an award for the quarterback who was leading when the season ended. In 12 of the last 15 seasons, and each of the last seven seasons, the MVP has been quarterbacked by a No. 1 seed.

Still, Barkley’s 255-yard game against the Rams has given him some much-needed MVP buzz late in the season. Barkley can have a shot, which is rare for a non-quarterback. Here’s what he’ll likely need to do to win the award:

Set the single-season rushing record or eclipse at least 2,000 yards: Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 yard record has stood since 1984. Barkley is on pace for 2,150.5 yards. Breaking an iconic record would give him a boost. Getting up to 2,000 would help. Four of the eight 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history won the MVP. No running back since 1993 has won without a 2,000-yard season or set a single-season touchdown record. Would Barkley win if he ends up with e.g. 1,950 yards? Ask Kupp how it’s going.

The Eagles get the no. 1 seed: The preponderance of selecting an MVP quarterback from a No. 1 seed is crazy, but it’s part of the formula now. A non-QB faces long odds to win, and probably can’t leave any box unchecked. If the Eagles can overtake the Lions for the top seed, that would eliminate voters who resent someone like Jared Goff. And Barkley could make a case that he is the most valuable player on a top seed. It means something.

QBs Fall: Barkley is on record pace coming off a massive game on a nationally televised stage, and he’s still not the MVP favorite. He’s actually a little behind. At BetMGMthe favorite is Josh Allen (+150 odds) followed by Lamar Jackson (+220), then Barkley (+650) and Goff (+700). All others are at least 10-to-1. You’ll hear a lot this week about Barkley’s MVP chances, and he’s in the conversation, but these odds are a reminder that if there’s a QB that can win, that’s what will happen. Barkley likely needs a fumble from Allen, Jackson and maybe even Goff. That’s the price now.

Barkley is having a remarkable season. But he still needs a few things to happen to actually win the NFL MVP.