Best Quentin Johnston prop bets for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football

The Harbaugh Bowl (Harbowl?) is finally here and we all get the extreme pleasure of watching these two impeccably coached teams face off. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Baltimore Ravens will look to execute a game plan that will absolutely stifle Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and JK Dobbins. It will be efficiency versus efficiency, grit versus grit, and we should all be thankful to close out NFL Week 12 with this Monday Night Football.

I already wrote about one Ladd McConkey prop I love for tonight here on DK Networkbut I’m also all over a Quentin Johnston Jr. market.

Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards

We took QJ1’s receiving yards for Sunday Night Football in Week 11 (set at 44.5) and he tied it at 48 yards. Which of course wouldn’t beat this number. But I’m not too worried about it for tonight’s game.

I broke down in my Ladd McConkey prop article how this Ravens secondary is vulnerable from an advanced analytics perspective:

The Ravens’ secondary is susceptible

The Baltimore Ravens defensive unit has allowed 88 explosive passing plays (defined by NGS as plays of 15+ yards), the most in the NFL by a margin of 11. That’s a uniquely vulnerable secondary Justin Herbert has to go up against. Not coincidentally, Baltimore also leads the league in explosive passing plays allowed rate, with 18.1% of their total dropbacks resulting in passing plays of fifteen or more yards.

Bodes well for our rocket-wielding prince in electric blue, doesn’t it? The Ravens also only generate pressure on the quarterback below the league average 30.3% of the time when rushing four defenders, and rush four defenders 76.3% of the time. That’s good for fifth in the NFL. This is all to say: Justin Herbert should have a relatively clean pocket to operate.

I explained this as the reasoning behind my McConkey prop, but frankly it’s a little more encouraging for this Quentin Johnston series. Since Week 7, Quentin Johnson ranks third in the NFL in route depth (16.1 yards). That’s behind only Christian Watson and Alec Pierce, both of whom have seen far less success on long balls. Johnston has just one drop during that time, which is a crucial stat for his doubters to record.

He has two endzone targets and two endzone receptions during that time, as we noted last week. It is worth mentioning again because it suggests the trust Herbert has developed in Johnson.

Bottom line

Among the same sample size, QJ1 also ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per carry. goals (12.8) and, despite no drops, actually has a slightly negative catch rate above expectation (CROE). Which means we could actually see a positive reception regression.

Johnston can handle that number in a single game, but we don’t need him. He is the most physical receiver Chargers has on the outside and he should get a ton of looks from Herbert tonight. This line feels way too low for the Chargers’ outside alpha.

Best bet: Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards

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