CFP Betting Reaction: Does Big 12 Uncertainty Bring Betting Options?

The latest College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings have made things interesting heading into Week 13. As teams jockey for position in the final weeks of the season, we’ve seen dramatic swings in both rankings and odds. From BYU’s surprising drop to Tennessee’s precarious position — and the far-reaching race for the Big 12 championship — this week’s moves offer a fascinating look at the volatile nature of college football’s postseason picture.

Here are the biggest moves and betting implications to emerge from the latest rankings:

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.

Major movers down the rankings

no. 14 BYU (No. 6 last week): BYU’s ranking behind SMU (No. 13) has sparked controversy due to head-to-head results. BYU defeated SMU on the road and has a ranked win (against Kansas State), while SMU has none. This discrepancy in the rankings has generated considerable discussion.

The Cougars’ dramatic drop of eight spots was primarily due to their 17-13 loss to Kansas last weekend, which ended their undefeated season. Kansas, despite showing improvement, is not considered a top-tier Big 12 opponent. This drop indicates that the committee factored BYU’s previous close wins (18-15 vs. SMU, 38-35 vs. Oklahoma State and 22-21 vs. Utah) into its decision.

Betting odds have also changed significantly, with BYU moving from +100 to +300 to make the playoff, and -130 to -450 to miss. However, BYU remains the highest-ranked Big 12 team and the fifth-highest ranked projected conference champion. The Cougars still control their Big 12 title run record, with a conference championship likely if they win.

However, Week 13 presents a challenge with BYU as 3-point underdogs to Arizona State. While there may appear to be value in BYU at +300 to make the playoffs, given its 39% chance according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), it’s a high-risk bet given the current standings and upcoming challenges.

Ultimately, there is limited value on either side of the playoff odds. For those who favor BYU, backing it at +125 to beat Arizona State might be more appealing. Caution is advised given the opposing trajectories of the teams. The safer approach may be to avoid these bets altogether and wait for clearer value opportunities to emerge.

no. 11 Tennessee (No. 7 last week): Tennessee’s 31-17 loss to Georgia affected its standing. With only UTEP and Vanderbilt remaining on their schedule, the Volunteers have limited opportunities to impress the committee due to the relatively weak strength of those opponents.

Despite falling to no. 11, Tennessee’s path to the playoffs is wide open. ESPN’s playoff predictor optimistically gives the Volunteers an 83% chance to make the playoffs, assuming wins against UTEP and Vanderbilt. However, this projection seems at odds with the committee’s current ranking.

However, the odds reflect this uncertainty. At -135 to make the playoffs, there might appear to be value given ESPN’s lofty projection. However, the committee’s ranking suggests that these odds may be overly optimistic.

+105 odds for Tennessee to miss the playoffs could provide better value. This bet aligns better with Tennessee’s current standings and the committee’s outlook. The significant shift in odds from last week underscores the increased uncertainty surrounding Tennessee’s playoff chances.

Bet: Arizona State +350 to win the Big 12 Championship

In week 6, I suggested backing Colorado at 16-1 to win the Big 12 Conference after three straight wins, including a 38-31 overtime victory against Baylor.

Given this stake, the Arizona State +350 bet becomes an intriguing complementary option. Here is the potential scenario:

In Week 13, Arizona State is favored by three points at home against BYU. A BYU loss would hurt its Big 12 championship prospects. If the Sun Devils defeat the Cougars, their chances of making the championship would increase to 7.04%, up from 2.64% before their win against Kansas State.

Arizona State needs additional help, which could come from Colorado’s game. The Buffaloes no. 16 is -2.5 in Kansas. The Jayhawks have played spoiler, with back-to-back wins over Top 25 teams Iowa State and BYU, plus a two-point loss to now-No. 26 Kansas State. A Colorado loss to Kansas could complicate the road to the title game.

Currently in third place in the Big 12 with a 5-2 conference record, Arizona State has a realistic path that becomes even more likely if both BYU and Colorado lose.

In a possible three-way tie scenario with Colorado and Iowa State, Arizona State could come out on top due to the combined winning percentage of conference opponents.

This bet acts as a smart hedge on the existing Colorado stake and provides coverage for multiple scenarios in the volatile Big 12. Even without a Colorado ticket, +350 odds for Arizona State offer value given the current standings, recent strong form and potential outcomes.