What does Florida’s win vs. Ole Miss for the Aggies in the CFP

On November 24, 2024By Littum

If Texas A&M is going to reach the SEC Championship and ultimately the College Football Playoff, they need to do just one thing.

Wind out.

The Aggies (8-2) travel Saturday to play Auburn, then return home to play rival Texas on Nov. 30. A&M can force their way into the CFP conversation if they win the final two games of the season and then the conference title game. A&M is ranked number 15 in the common fisheries policy and no. 14 in the American LBM Coaches Poll.

Head coach Mike Elko has reinforced for weeks that the Aggies “control their own destiny.” They know that clean play will lead them to the postseason they want. But can they do it?

Some help came Saturday afternoon when Florida (6-5) upset No. 9 Miss Ole.

Here’s what happened in the Florida-Mississippi game and what it could mean for Texas A&M going forward:

Florida upsets Ole Miss in Week 13

It was tied 17-17 in The Swamp, but a nine-yard run from Montrell Johnson Jr. put Gators on top with seven minutes remaining. Florida defensive back Bryce Thorton intercepted two Jaxson Dart bombs to put the final nail in the coffin of the rebels and bury their hopes for the CFP.

Ole Miss falls to 8-3, but more importantly, now has three conference losses. That’s one less team A&M has to worry about if they lose one of the final two games of the season. In Week 13, four SEC teams were tied with two conference losses, and Ole Miss, ranked No. 9 in the CFP, was theoretically ahead of A&M for an at-large bid, even though it was behind in the conference standings.

What does A&M’s path to the common fisheries policy look like?

Of course, the clearest path through an automatic bid is by winning the conference title game. But what if the Aggies lose the title game or miss it altogether? Then the Aggies would need an at-large bid.

A&M’s chances of earning the CFP via the selection committee are at the mercy of other teams losing. No. 2 Ohio State stomped no. 5 Indiana, so the Hoosiers will likely fall in the CFP rankings. Losses by Texas, Alabama, Georgia or Tennessee also help A&M.

Possible upsets that could help A&M’s chances include Kansas over Colorado and Army over Notre Dame.

What will happen against Texas?

If A&M beats Auburn, the final game of the season against rival Texas will mean a lot more.

Pulling off an upset against the Horns will boost their chances of making the 12-team playoffs, all but guaranteeing a spot in the conference title game. If A&M beats Texas and becomes the 2024 SEC Champions, their bid to the CFP is automatic.

But if the Aggies beat Texas and lose the SEC title game, they can only hope to be an at-large team. If the Aggies lose to Auburn but beat Texas, their SEC title game fate will go to tiebreaker.

While Texas A&M would likely be passed over for an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the SEC title game, the selection committee could give A&M a shot with the right set of outside wins and losses.

SEC title-game tiebreakers

Intercompetition among equal teams.
Record vs. all regular conference opponents among tied teams.
Play against highest ranked common conference opponents in the conference standings and continue through the conference standings among the tied teams.
Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams.
Limited relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among tied teams.
Random draw of the tied teams.

How does the College Football Playoff format work?

The Power Four conference champions get first-round byes. The remaining eight teams will play first-round games at campus sites, with the higher seed hosting. Beginning in the quarterfinal round, the games move to neutral sites hosted by the New Year’s Six Bowl game.

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