Who could replace Matt Nagy as Chiefs’ OC?

It’s been nearly two full seasons with Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator again, taking over for Eric Bieniemy, who left for Washington after the 2022-23 season. Nagy, who was also the offensive coordinator back in 2017 before becoming the head coach in Chicago for four seasons, has certainly caught the attention of Chiefs fans since then — but not always in a good way.

It’s easy to be happy after two straight seasons ending with the Lamar Hunt Trophy and the all-important Vince Lombardi Trophy, both gracing the halls of Arrowhead Stadium. However, it’s also easy to point to the offense under Nagy and see some glaring differences that may leave fans yearning for change.

The funny thing is, many fans aren’t longing for change going forward, but rather going backwards — back to the years under Bieniemy, when the offense ranked in the top three in yards in four of his five seasons as OC. Back to the years when Bieniemy aggressively and visibly held players accountable for mistakes in practice as well as in games.

So with Nagy’s name being mentioned as a possible head coaching candidate this coming offseason, who could be the offensive coordinator of the future? Could it be Nagy again, or could Bieniemy leave his comfortable home in Los Angeles and return to Kansas City? Or … could another former OC return to wear red on the sidelines after a stint as a head coach elsewhere?

While it’s always been obvious that offensive play calling goes through Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes has changed that at the line and then the offensive coordinator, that doesn’t mean certain OCs haven’t had better success at the position than others – and Bieniemy was the most successful of them all.

One thing that should be mentioned is that Bieniemy was able to take advantage of a young gunslinger Mahomes wanting to throw long rainbow passes to players like Tyreek Hill. With Bieniemy at the helm, the Chiefs ranked top six in point differential all five years, first in points in two separate years (2018, ’22) and top three in net yards per carry. pass attempts in four of five seasons.

This is not the same type of Mahomes, nor is it the same type of offensive build he was graced with for five seasons. However, that doesn’t mean he would fail or have trouble reintegrating a firepower, air attack with players like Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and maybe even Marquise “Hollywood” Brown on the depth chart next season.

With that said, if Bieniemy were to return after one year at Washington and one year at UCLA, would it be a return to that type of offense? Or would Bieniemy’s history as a running back and run-heavy coordinator allow him to utilize players like Isiah Pacheco and Carson Steele to their full potential, as he did with Mahomes initially?

During 2022-23, Bieniemy’s only year with Pacheco, he got the most out of the Rutgers rookie with 170 rushing attempts for 830 yards during his only 17-game season so far in his young career. Add another 197 rushing yards in the postseason and it was clear that both Bieniemy and Pacheco were in a groove that was cut short by injuries and Nagy’s rise to OC.

Since then, Bieniemy hasn’t had the greatest success – both on the ground and in the win/loss columns. In his lone year in Washington, he didn’t have a great offensive line, which is not his fault. Yet he still managed to produce an offense that generated the 7th highest yards per carry. experiment on the ground (4.4 ypa).

Unfortunately, his first year at UCLA doesn’t go well either, both on the ground and in general. The Bruins are currently 12th in the Big Ten with a 4-6 record and are dead last in the Big Ten with 85.4 rushing yards per carry. game – the only team in the conference not to have 100+ yards – which could mean another year of tenure, leaving him with open availability this coming offseason.

Five seasons under Bieniemy and nearly two full seasons under Nagy means there will be some obvious differences in sample size, but it’s still worth seeing if Nagy is truly gone after this season and Bieniemy is truly looking for a job at the same time .

In 2017, when Nagy was the OC with Alex Smith at quarterback, the Chiefs ranked fifth in offensive yards and sixth in points. Compare that to last season, when he returned to the position and had Mahomes for a season after winning MVP and Super Bowl MVP. Last year’s offense ranked ninth in yards and 15th in points — a massive drop-off that continues into this season.

Bieniemy never finished lower than sixth best in any of those categories, even after losing the likes of Hill to Miami and managing a rebuilt offensive line through most of his tenure.

Currently, Mahomes has just a 3.1 Big Time Throw percentage (BTT), by far the lowest of his career. During Bieniemy’s time in KC, Mahomes averaged 5.56 BTT%. That coincides with Mahomes’ average depth of field (aDoT), which has also gotten progressively shorter under Nagy, averaging 6.65 yards compared to 8.32 under Bieniemy.

This could be because the weakened left tackle position rushed Mahomes during Nagy’s time as OC, as evidenced by the amount of pressure he faces per. game (17.7% of pressures lead to sacks on Mahomes alone this season). That’s one of the main reasons it’s hard to judge Bieniemy versus Nagy, especially this season when it feels like Mahomes is on the ground more often than ever.

Another name that has been floating around is former Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson, someone who has seen success at the highest level in his time away from Andy Reid but is back on the hot seat in Jacksonville after starting the year 2-9.

During Pederson’s time as OC in Kansas City (2013-15), the Chiefs had the fewest interceptions all three seasons and ranked first in rushing touchdowns in his final season before leaving to coach the Philadelphia Eagles.

Those three seasons saw Alex Smith’s aDoT sit at an average of 6.63 yards, an improvement over Mahomes under Nagy. It’s also the three years Smith was sacked at least 41 times in each season — the most of his career outside of a season (2011) at San Francisco (51). Ultimately, he was able to scheme long passes for Smith despite a poor offensive line that allowed pressure similar to what Mahomes seems to face every series this year.

If and when Pederson gets canned from Jacksonville, it could very easily be an upgrade from Nagy should he return to Kansas City as offensive coordinator. Not only that, he could be the heir to Reid if and when he retires before the end of Mahomes’ time in Kansas City.

Regardless of who takes over as OC next season, even if Nagy continues his tenure, there are a lot of tough conversations to be had within the coaching staff about how to get Mahomes and the scheme back on track after two straight years. subpar points and yardage on the field.

Whether it’s Bieniemy and his run-heavy past, or Pederson trying to recapture what he once had with Carson Wentz and even Trevor Lawrence, there could be plenty of opportunity for anyone not named Nagy next season.