Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Weekly: Was Jared McCain the steal of the draft?

In what has been considered a lackluster rookie class, any glimpse of production can quickly get people excited. Last season, Victor Wembanyama’s generation numbers overshadowed a lot of other rookies, and that took some of the excitement out of young guys who played well at times. That is not the case this season. Any big play out of a rookie is magnified to the point that one night can completely shake up the Rookie of the Year odds.

That’s what makes McCain’s streak stand out. Sure, that can be attributed at least in part to some of the injury issues the team has dealt with early on, but he still took advantage of the opportunity. He’s gone from a player who would see some extra minutes with Tyrese Maxey out to a player Nick Nurse can’t take out of the lineup. McCain has solidified his starting spot, and he will share the backcourt with Maxey for years to come.

All three Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George were sidelined against the Cavs last week, allowing McCain to get the first start of his career. He ended up finishing with 34 points, 10 assists, two steals and six 3-pointers. It was only the third time in NBA history that a rookie reached those marks in a game, with Stephen Curry doing it in 46 minutes and Jason Kidd needing 49 minutes. McCain did it in just 38 minutes against one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Wednesday night marked the first time Philly had their newly minted big three available at the same time, which was concerning for McCain’s production. How well would he fare as the fourth option? Well, Maxey is still on a minute restriction and George left with a knee injury, which happened to be the same knee he hyperextended during the preseason. At least for now, the question of how it all fits has been delayed again.

McCain remained in the starting lineup and played a career-high 41 minutes. He extended his streak of games with at least 20 points and three 3-pointers to six games, tying him with Allen Iverson for the second-longest streak by a rookie. He’ll have a chance to tie Jalen Green’s rookie record of seven games against the Nets on Friday.

Sure, his production is now relevant to reshaping leagues, but how should dynasty leaders value him? Is this early success a glimpse into stardom, or is it just a young player enjoying the ball being put in his hands?

Shooting/scoring

One thing that gives me confidence about McCain long term is that while he is effective with the ball in his hands, he is not a true point guard. It’s easy to put him in that role because he’s 6’3″ and he’s been a playmaker for Philly early this season. I’d attribute it more to the absence of the other ball handlers, and the 76ers not wanting to trust Kyle Lowry to orchestrate the entire offense in 2024. In spurts, that’s fine, but putting the ball in the hands of a first-round pick and seeing what he can do just makes more sense.

McCain averaged just 1.9 assists per game. fight in college. His 10-assist game and stretch of four straight games with at least four assists is a nice bonus, not what was expected of him, especially on this team. One of the best statistical comparisons for him in college is Devin Booker. Many of their advanced numbers such as Player Efficiency Rating, True Shooting Percentage, Effective Field Goal Percentage, 3-Point Attempt Rate, Free Throw Rate, Assist Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Usage Percentage, Offensive Win Shares/40 Minutes, Offensive Box Plus/Minus and 3 -Pointers/100 Possessions were all very similar. Their roles and situations were not the same and the development is not linear. Also, projecting players is simply not that easy. This does not mean that McCain will be Booker, but it is encouraging. McCain doesn’t need to rely on having the ball in his hands to be successful, but it’s something he can develop eventually, which would only make him more valuable.

It is also a myth that McCain has filled Maxey’s role and benefited from it. What McCain has done is completely different than what Maxey is doing. 81.3% of McCain’s 3-pointers this season have been assisted, and 50.6% of his total makes have come from assists. By comparison, Maxey has been assisted on just 22.9% of his makes this season and on just 31.8% of his 3-pointers.

McCain has been successful without having to dominate the ball. He plays within the flow of the offense. However, it doesn’t really match what his team has done. 76ers are last in assists per match. They are also 28th in shots off 0 dribbles and fourth in both shots taken off 3-6 dribbles and shots taken off 7+ dribbles. While this may seem worrisome to the team, it is how they have operated in recent years. They’ve been in the bottom five for potential assists for years, and while that may look worse than usual this season, it can be at least partially attributed to the team simply taking fewer shots. They are last in field goal percentage.

Here’s the encouraging part. McCain has still been good. He’s playing on a team that doesn’t have an offensive philosophy that prioritizes the shots he’s been best at, and he’s still been able to produce. Should it be seen as an unsustainable hot streak or as a star trying to shine through the dark clouds of isolation basketball? Only time will tell.

However they have used him, McCain has been successful. Most of his points have come with an assist, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been effective with the ball in his hands. It just means that most of his production has come in a way that should be sustainable even when the stars in Philadelphia are healthy. When looking at points per possession (PPP), McCain ranks in the 77th percentile as a pick and roll ballhandler, the 75th percentile as a spot up shooter and in the 71st percentile in isolation. It’s all over the league, not just rookies. Among rookies, he is first in points per game after drives (5.9) and after catch-and-shoot shots (4.9). He is also second among rookies in points per game. match on pull-up shots (3.6).

McCain has taken 6.2 of his 11.6 shots per game after dribbling at least three times. As expected, his efficiency has been lower on those shots, though it hasn’t been terrible. I know I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you, so let’s briefly recap what McCain has done so far as a rookie. He has made shots at high speed. He has hit shots both off the dribble and off passes. The shots from passes should not be affected by the availability of other stars. He’ll likely see fewer shots off the dribble when everyone is healthy, but McCain has still been effective off the bounce. He has the skills to be an offensive star.

Playmaking

Much of what McCain has done as a passer has been within the flow of the offense. He has created shots for teammates, but many of his assists have come in transition or simply by making the extra pass. That’s totally okay, especially for a rookie on (what should be) a playoff team. The occasional glimpse that reminds us of his upside as a passer while remembering that shouldn’t be his role this season is enough. Whether he ends up developing into a true point guard or remains effective as a secondary playmaker, the talent is there. When all three of Philly’s All-Stars are healthy (if that happens), McCain might not get many chances to remind us what he can be as a passer. When the tough times come, managers should not forget what he has done when he has had the ball in his hands in the last few games.

Defense

The numbers have not been in McCain’s favor on the other side of the floor. McCain has made some plays and been able to turn defense into easy offense, but that has only happened a few times this season. His defensive field goal percentage hasn’t been great, but that’s not the end of the world for a rookie. He will have time to improve on that end. He averaged 1.1 steals per game. struggle in college, so we should never expect him to be elite in that category. We can always go back to this defensive rep in the clutch on LaMelo Ball. It’s only one play, but it was about as perfect as it could have been on one of the best offensive players the league has to offer.

Situation

Obviously, McCain has been able to shine because of the injuries. He wasn’t really in the rotation early this season and only entered it when Maxey went down. This is not a situation where he will be pushed out of the rotation with Maxey back; McCain has landed a starting job. There are a few rookies who start because of injuries or because they are on bad teams. Sure, the 76ers have been one of the bad teams, but that’s not how they were designed. McCain shouldn’t be arguably their best player at this point in the season. He’s played veterans to get his spot and played the team’s stars, even if it hasn’t resulted in wins. In a matter of weeks, McCain has gone from a player who has streaming appeal because of his situation to a player the team simply can’t afford not to have on the floor.

Overall view

The concerns must be acknowledged. What if McCain stops firing at the rate he has? What if he fights in a lower volume role? What if defenses start to figure out how to protect him? Of course those things can happen. Progression isn’t linear, and just because a player plays well early on doesn’t mean they’re destined to be a Hall of Famer. There have been plenty of rookies who have had success who haven’t continued it throughout their careers.

But based on what we’ve seen, the 20-year-old has been a monster on the offensive end early on. The numbers will likely dive with more talent around him, but the expectation is not for him to have at least 20 points and three 3-pointers every game for the rest of his career. He’ll still be a strong option in redraft leagues, but Dynasty leaders should feel like they got a steal.