Trump team maps Latin America strategy as part of mass deportation plan

Washington
CNN
—

President-elect Donald Trump’s team is rolling out an aggressive strategy toward Latin America that will be a key element of plans to deport migrants on a large scale, according to two sources involved in transition policy discussions.

During his first term in office, Trump took a hard-line — and at times scattershot — approach to the region, which was largely the source of migration to the United States, including levying consequences, such as sanctions, and threats and the imposition of tariffs.

In his second term, the region will continue to play a central role in plans to stem the flow of migration and return people who are undocumented in the United States. Deportation often depends on diplomacy – and has been a steep challenge for the US when dealing with countries where conditions are frosty.

This time, sources involved and close to the transition said they are better prepared as they seek ways to engage forcefully and leverage allies, while also allowing for harsh consequences for countries that do not comply. Overall, it’s a return to a hard-line approach aimed at forcing deportee-receiving countries to comply and try to curb migration.

“Every tool is in our arsenal. There is a constant flow of creativity,” said one of the sources.

The strategy involves relying heavily on Mexico, as the US has traditionally done, to control migration to its northern border, bringing back agreements that prevented migrants from seeking asylum in the US if they passed through certain countries, and working closely together with Panama to stop the flow of migrants through the Darien Gap.

It is a plan that requires buy-in from regional partners. But sources close to and involved in discussions claim they have identified the incentives and pressure points to get countries to cooperate.

“Everything is on the table,” the source said, referring to ensuring countries take back their nationals. “Once the president has re-established credibility and consequences, that’s not something taken lightly.”

In recent years, the Western Hemisphere has faced record migration driven by deteriorating conditions that only worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. That resulted in surges at the US-Mexico border that strained already overwhelmed federal resources.

The changing demographics arriving at the border have also complicated deportations. For example, poor economic conditions, food shortages and limited access to health care have pushed more than 7.7 million people to flee Venezuela, marking the largest displacement in the Western Hemisphere – and many chose to head north.

Venezuela briefly accepted deportation flights, but then stopped.

Trump’s team is prepared to bring back sanctions that the Biden administration eased to try to stabilize the country if Venezuela does not comply, sources said, although it is unclear whether that would move the needle.

“There has been change and turnover on a bilateral basis, but at the end of the first term we were very aware of the incentives and the pressure points – it was not something we knew or had a full understanding of. Other governments know that. our priorities too — and know that we are serious about this,” said a former official currently involved in the planning.

The Biden administration has secured some breakthroughs, including being able to conduct repatriation flights to China.

Governments in the region have also signaled that they are keenly aware of the approach Trump is likely to take and are preparing as a result.

“They expect him to be tough and destructive to the region. He will seize every opportunity and take advantage of opportunities,” according to a source familiar with the discussions. “It has been very matter-of-fact. Everyone is preparing in a very savvy way for the approaches he will take.”

Trump’s pledge to deport undocumented immigrants, if passed, could also wreak havoc across the region, where many countries rely on remittances from the United States to shore up their economies.

The executive actions and reviews underway by the Trump team include rolling back the program known informally as “remain in Mexico,” which requires migrants to stay in Mexico during their U.S. immigration procedures.

Shortly after Trump won the presidential election, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she had a “cordial” call with Trump in which they discussed the “good relationship” between Mexico and the United States. according to a post on X.

On Thursday, Sheinbaum emphasized the contributions of Mexican immigrants, but told reporters that Mexico is prepared to receive those who are deported.

“If there are deportations, we will receive them, the Mexicans, and we have a plan for that,” she said. “But we will work up front to show that our compatriots across the border have no reason to be deported, and on the contrary, they even benefit the American economy.”

Senior Mexican officials planned to meet Thursday to discuss the issues that will be raised with the incoming Trump administration, including trade, migration and security, she added.

Trump’s team is also preparing to begin negotiations to reimplement what were formerly known as asylum cooperation agreements, sources said.

The agreements – initiated during Trump’s first term – marked a significant shift in US asylum policy, as migrants who may have legitimate claims for asylum could be sent to other countries to make their cases.

The United States was in various stages of the agreements with the countries of the Northern Triangle, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, but only the agreement with Guatemala was ever really up and running.

El Salvador is expected to be a key ally in bringing those deals back, according to one of the sources, who said the governments of Guatemala and Honduras could prove a challenge. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele was among the first leaders to congratulate Trump.

“A second-term Trump administration will expand ‘burden-sharing’ agreements with Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador that cut off routes to the US for asylum seekers. The goal is to expand the reach of these to as many countries, continents, regions as possible, ” said the former official.

Officials in the Biden administration also sought to secure commitments from regional partners to curb migration and share migration responsibilities, including through what became known as the Los Angeles Declaration, but also faced challenges amid the country’s restrictions.

Experts say Trump’s expected approach could also face obstacles.

“It’s a dance,” said Andrew Selee, president of the nonpartisan think tank Migration Policy Institute. “The United States has many cards, but not all the cards.”

This story has been updated with additional details.

CNN’s Phil Mattingly contributed to this report.