Baylor Bears vs St. John’s Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks

Baylor Bears will face St. John’s Red Storm in the opening game of the Bahamas Championship. The winner of this matchup will play the winner of Tennessee and Virginia in this mini 4 team tournament. Baylor has gotten back on track since their opening night loss to Gonzaga, winning 3 straight contests, including an impressive 72-67 victory over Arkansas. For the Johnnie’s, they have lived up to the hype so far as they have a perfect 4-0 record including a comfortable win over the New Mexico Lobos. This should be a fun matchup between 2 talented teams, but there is an advantage to be had on one side.

After Baylor’s embarrassing loss to Gonzaga in which they gave up 101 points, coach Scott Drew decided a change was needed on the defensive end immediately. The adjustment he made vs. Arkansas, was switching to his 1-1-3 zone that he made famous in the early 2010s. This gave a below-average shooting team in Arkansas some real problems, and it could give St. John’s similar problems. Drew also made it a point to slow down and prevent transition opportunities, an area where the Red Storm also thrives. To force St. John’s becoming a jump-shot dependent team should do wonders for a Baylor team that hasn’t been great when playing man-to-man.

Baylor also has opportunities for success on the offensive end, and that starts with the offensive glass. They are 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, led by Norchad Omier, and they can exploit the one true weakness the Johnnies have defensively (166th in defensive rebounding rate). The Bears should also have success in the pick and roll game with their abundance of guard options, and St. John’s has been poor at defending these actions to start the season (19th percentile vs pick and roll handlers, per Synergy).

Those factors, along with the Bears being tested on the road, should give them an edge over a Red Storm team that hasn’t left the friendly confines of New York this season. Unless St. John’s has an outlier shooting day, Baylor’s defense matches up well when they play their zone, and they have more scoring talent. Back the Bears in the Bahamas Thursday night.

Baylor -2.5 (-105) available at time of publication. Can be played on that track

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