Penn State vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert soccer model

A late-season Big Ten matchup begins this weekend as No. 4 Penn State takes the field against Minnesota. Let’s check in with the latest game prediction from an expert analytical football model that predicts results and picks winners.

Penn State improved to 6-1 in Big Ten play after routing Purdue and emerged as the No. 6 seed in the latest College Football Playoff bracket projection entering Saturday’s game.

Minnesota is coming off a loss at Rutgers but is bowl eligible at 6-4, thanks in part to the nation’s 12th-ranked scoring defense, but the team struggles to score, ranking 87th with under 27 points per game. game, and is just 122nd out of 134 FBS teams in rushing output.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Nittany Lions and Golden Gophers square off in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Penn State and Minnesota compare in this Week 13 college football matchup.

As expected, the models take a strong hold on the Nittany Lions and by a decent margin too.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Minnesota by a projected score of 30 to 15 and will win the game by a projected margin of 15 points in the process.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 83 percent chance of outright victory over the Gophers.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite against Minnesota, according to the updated lines submitted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total as 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And that put the moneyline odds for Penn State at -490 and for Minnesota at +375 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of players who think the Nittany Lions will take care of the Gophers, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State gets 59 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 41 percent of bets project Minnesota will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 12 points in a loss.

Penn State enters this weekend ranked No. 9 at national level on average for scoring margin per game this season, outscoring his opponents by 19.4 points.

Minnesota is 42nd in the FBS in that category, averaging 4.7 points better than the competition.

These averages have improved for both teams over the last three games.

Penn State has outscored its opponents by 20.3 points during that time, while Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 8.7 points during that span.

But the Nittany Lions also still have a bigger edge when considering the venue.

Penn State has outscored opponents by an average of 19.8 points when playing on the road this year, while Minnesota has been outscored by 8 points at home in 2024.

Most other analytical football models also heavily favor the Nittany Lions against the Gophers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State emerged as the heavy favorite on the index, coming out on top in a majority 74.9 percent of the FPI computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Minnesota as the presumed winner in the remaining 25.1 percent of sims for the matchup.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Penn State is projected to be 9.8 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current makeups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

When: Sat 23 Nov
Where: Minneapolis, Minn.

Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
TV: CBS network

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The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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