Can the Nittany Lions come back?

Penn State head coach James Franklin has hit plenty of milestones during his tenure, and he has the opportunity to reach another this weekend. Since taking over the program in 2014, the Nittany Lions have never gone undefeated on the road. A win against Minnesota on Saturday would change that.

Of course, having to play either Michigan or Ohio State on the road this year doesn’t compare to previous years, but it would still represent something you don’t see very often in modern college football.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, it should be noted that the Golden Gophers are not a team Penn State can take lightly. A loss to Rutgers two weeks ago doesn’t look great, but PSU fans know that Minnesota has given the Nittany Lions its fair share of close games over the years. In fact, it was just a few years ago, in 2019, that the Gophers defeated a Penn State team that just happened to be ranked No. 4 in the country at the time, 31-26. Add in the 29-26 overtime win for PSU in 2016 – and dare I even mention 1999 – and this is a game that should have everyone’s full focus.

So how does Saturday’s game go? Our staff provides their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 9-1)

Minnesota has been pretty good defensively this season, but has yet to face an offense as capable as Penn State’s when they operate at their best. The Lions have been pretty good offensively this season, but have had scoring cheats against the better defenses they’ve faced on the schedule.

Minnesota’s offense isn’t great. Penn State’s defense is.

Buoyed by the momentum of a strong first half against Washington offensively, parlayed into four very good quarters at Purdue last week, the Nittany Lions will have an opportunity to continue trending in an enviable direction against a Minnesota program that has gotten opponents to earn their victories this year. What I expect to be a step back from the 35- and 49-point outings of the last two weeks shouldn’t put Penn State in danger of largely controlling the tenor of the game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Either way, needing to stack up wins convincingly en route to what the program hopes will be its first College Football Playoff berth, this is an opportunity I think the Nittany Lions are ready to seize.

Penn State: 26th
Minnesota: 13th

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 10-0)

This is definitely the most difficult situation/scenario for Penn State during the final month of the season. The Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis where PJ Fleck and the Gophers hope to play a spoiler of sorts. That doesn’t mean Minnesota is a world champion by any means, but home court advantage and a solid defense is a good place to start.

That said, it’s hard to see Minnesota’s offense causing too much panic for the Nittany Lions’ defense. The Gophers’ last time out was a 26-19 loss on the road at Rutgers. While a bye week may clear some of that up, I keep coming back to the fact that a beat-up Scarlet Knights team handled both lines of scrimmage in the win. Rutgers got it Max Brosmer four times and had eight tackles for loss. That seems like good news too Abdul Carter and company.

Will the Nittany Lions continue the efficient first halves of the past two weeks? If so, this could be a pleasant trip. This is Penn State’s third CBS afternoon game of the season. In the first two combined, Tyler Warren has 25 catches for 351 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Add in four carries for 67 yards and a score on the ground, and it’s no surprise he won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week both times. Perhaps a third standout performance could earn him his own NCIS spin-off.

Penn State: 31st
Minnesota: 13th

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 9-1)

The Minnesota defense presents a big challenge for the Penn State offense, coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington and Purdue. Unlike the Huskies, Minnesota’s defense can back up its statistical prowess with quality film. The defensive line is strong, aggressive and smart, while the secondary plays with awareness and advanced techniques. If Penn State can handle this group the way they did the last two games, it will show definite growth and development.

The Minnesota offense doesn’t bring the same level of danger to this game. Max Brosmer is a good college quarterback, but the team lacks the speed and weapons around him to make it a real play. Penn State’s defensive line and front seven have proven that while they don’t always play a clean game, they can get hot and dominate against the run.

It might be a classic Penn State effort overall, but the Lions should get the job done.

Penn State: 27th
Minnesota: 10th

Matt Herb (Season Record – 9-1)

It’s been 25 years since Minnesota snubbed Penn State’s national championship bid in 1999 in one of the most crushing defeats of the Paterno era, and it’s been five years since the Gophers dealt a devastating blow to PSU’s 2019 playoff bid in one of the more deflating performances. The Franklin Era.

Is there more disappointment ahead this week as the Nittany Lions return to Minneapolis for the first time since that 2019 game where their late comeback attempt fell short? It is possible. The Gophers had won four straight and were one of the Big Ten’s hottest teams before fumbling their game away at Rutgers on Nov. 9. They have beaten USC and Illinois and could have beaten Michigan if not for a questionably ruled onside kick at the end. They’re also coming off a bye week, which should prove especially useful at this late stage of the season when every team is dealing with injuries.

Still, the Gophers are averaging 25 points per game. game against Big Ten opponents. Throw in a 48-23 thrashing of Maryland and that average drops to 21.2 points. Will they be able to muster enough offense against Penn State, which is allowing just 13.8 points per game? battle against conference foes and excels at putting opponents at disadvantage from long range? It is an open question.

With an opportunistic defense that ranks fourth in the FBS with 16 interceptions, Minnesota certainly seems to have the potential to play spoiler again. The more likely scenario, however, is that Penn State scores enough to keep its playoff bid on track.

Penn State: 27th
Minnesota: 17th

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 10-0)

Minnesota has only lost one game by more than a touchdown this season. It’s 7-2-1 against the spread. Penn State, on the other hand, is just 5-5 against the number this year, but has seven double-digit wins. Those numbers don’t mean much for this weekend’s meeting between the Golden Gophers and Nittany Lions, but it’s worth pointing out that either the home team’s defense or the away team’s offense will determine which season-long trend continues.

Penn State will be tested by one of the better defenses it has seen so far this season. However, we heard similar concerns against Washington, and it proved to be no problem even though the game was at home and in front of a White Out crowd. Regardless, the Lions know what’s at stake here and won’t allow 2019 to repeat itself. First, it was a much better Minnesota team. And secondly, this Lions team is more equipped to win on the road, in our opinion, as they have already shown this season.

The Lions cover the double-digit spread and leave Minneapolis victorious.

Penn State: 24th
Minnesota: 10th

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 10-0)

Not only can Penn State not afford to lose either of its last two games, but I still think they need to look sharp in the last two weeks to secure a home game. I understand that; current projections have them playing safe at home as a six-seed, but I still think there’s a real chance they’ll end up with a lower seed than no. 6 when we get through conference championship games. Nationally, many people question PSU’s victories. Even squeaking out wins against either Minnesota or Maryland will only feed that fire.

The main matchup I’m focused on this week is Penn State’s pass rush against Minnesota’s offensive line. Aireontae Ersery against Abdul Carter is a matchup between two likely first-round picks, but aside from Ersery, I think Penn State’s remaining defensive linemen all have the edge in their matchups. Quarterback Max Brosmer has been decent this year, throwing just four interceptions. However, three of those came against the two best defenses he faced this year: Michigan and Iowa. Penn State comes in statistically better than both of those teams. Analytically, there is also a huge difference in how he performs when under pressure.

Minnesota’s secondary has 16 interceptions on the season, so Drew Allar must play, but that is certainly one of his strengths and always has been. However, a spread of 11.5 points feels a bit too high. I predict Penn State taking a double-digit lead at some point in the third quarter before allowing a potential backdoor cover late.

Penn State: 24th
Minnesota: 17th