Live Updates: Ukraine military accuses Russia of ICBM launch, Kyiv fires Storm Shadow missiles and ATACMS into Russian territory

Russia’s possible use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a message to the West that it has greater capabilities than previously shown after a week of significant military operations and political changes in both Ukraine and Russia.

The West has for some time been concerned about a mutual Russian escalation of the war. This week, both US and British-French-made missiles have been fired into Russia by Ukraine after US President Joe Biden authorized Kiev to use longer-range US missiles.

In turn, President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine — in a nuanced way, but still refined their policy to lower the threshold for use.

There is no indication that the potential ICBM that Russia launched around Such an event would have provoked a very different reaction in Kiev and the West.

But it is also noteworthy that the American, Greek and Spanish embassies in Kiev closed on Wednesday. It could be possible that they had been notified of Russia’s possible ICBM launch and had taken precautions; a nuclear power, when using a missile like this, may choose to warn other nuclear powers so they don’t mistake it for another type of launch.

So what we know now is very little: a statement from the Ukrainian Air Force that an ICBM was used, another set of sounds in Dnipro. But the effect is still palpable. Russia has tried and may have succeeded in sending a message by launching what is likely a new type of conventional missile to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.

This escalation does not necessarily mean a sea change in Russia’s capabilities or in the outcome of the war, which was already in their favor.

The key questions we still don’t have answers to are: What exactly was this missile, what is it capable of doing, and what did it do?