NBA Betting: Futures Bets to Make and Avoid on the Knicks and Suns

The New York Knicks were widely hailed as one of the winners of the offseason, creating buzz and widespread belief that they were ready to contend in the Eastern Conference. They are currently the fourth seed in the East, a half game out of third and 3.5 games behind the Celtics in the Atlantic Division.

The Suns were once heralded as winners of the previous offseason when they traded for Bradley Beal to build an All-Star “Big Three” with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. This offseason, they brought in a championship-winning head coach in Mike Budenholzer and entered the season as favorites to win the Pacific Division. They are currently the fifth seed in the Western Conference, two games behind the Warriors for first place in both the West and Pacific Divisions.

Do both teams have value in the futures market? If so, in which markets?

All odds are current at the time of publication. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET

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Knicks on the rise

The Knicks started the season slowly, losing five of their first nine games by an average of 11.4 points. They have since won four of five and their eight wins on the season have been convincing by an average margin of 17.3 points.

Part of their slow start was likely due to tough competition, with their first two losses coming on the road at the Celtics and against the Cavaliers, the top two seeds in the East.

Another part was likely due to the team learning to play together after rebuilding so much of their roster over the past year. Karl-Anthony Towns (October) and Mikal Bridges (July) were both added in the offseason, and OG Anunoby (December) was still relatively new to being a Knick as well.

Then there are the team’s struggles in defense. Although Towns is one of the best offensive big men in the league, he hasn’t given the Knicks the kind of defensive toughness and rim protection they’ve gotten in the past from Mitchell Robinson or even Isaiah Hartenstein. The result on the court has been a team very similar to Town’s: excellent on offense (the Knicks are 3rd with an offensive rating of 121.8 points per 100 possessions, fifth with an offensive BPI of 2.4), but subpar on defense (21st with a team defensive rating of 115.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, 27th with a defensive BPI of -2.5).

The good news for the Knicks is that their defense almost hair to feel better. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the best defensive minds in the league, and all three of their starting wings are plus defenders. Anunoby has been a defensive player of the year candidate, Bridges originally made his NBA name on the defensive end of the court, and Hart is one of the toughest wing defenders and rebounders in the NBA.

Over time, plan and aggressive wing defenders should give the Knicks a high floor as a unit. Plus, Robinson is expected to return from offseason ankle surgery in the next month or two and should provide a defensive boost even if he comes off the bench.

A bet to avoid: Knicks to win Atlantic Division (+340)

Yes, the Knicks should improve as the season progresses. But will they improve enough to fill games on a Celtics team that is already dominant and holds a multi-game lead on the Knicks even before they get a single game from All-Star big man Kristaps Porzingis? That seems unlikely given their odds, so I don’t find value in the Knicks to win the Atlantic Division (available on ESPN BET at +340, behind the odds-on favorite Celtics (-400).

One bet to make: Knicks to win more than 52.5 games (-115)

The Knicks are just two games over .500, but they already have a strong +5.8 PPG scoring margin that has been steadily increasing. Margin is often a better indicator of team caliber than record. Over the past two NBA seasons, only four teams have finished the season with a scoring margin better than +5.8. Those teams averaged 58.5 wins, with all four winning at least 56 games. So I find value in this effort.

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Injuries are hampering the Suns … again

The Suns began the season on fire, winning eight of their first nine games to sit atop the Pacific Division. But in the ninth game, they lost Durant to a calf strain, and he hasn’t played since. Without Durant, the Suns have lost five of their last six games by a margin of 12.2 PPG.

The Suns’ three superstars have an unfortunate injury history that suggests their struggles without Durant may not be a short-term problem. Despite playing in 75 games last season, Durant has averaged 26.5 missed games over his last four seasons, not even factoring in the fact that he missed the entirety of the 2019-20 season by coming after an injury. Booker has averaged 19 missed games over the last three seasons, while Beal has averaged 34.3 missed games over that span.

Three bets to avoid: Suns to win Pacific Division (+225), to win West (+700), to win championship (+1600)

There’s just too much uncertainty about availability, even before we get to last season’s unanswered questions about whether a perimeter-based Big Three — all three of which are score-first players — can win in the playoffs.

One bet to make: Suns to win fewer than 49.5 games (-115)

The Suns have a scoring margin of -1.5 PPG. Over the past three seasons, only two teams with a negative scoring margin even finished above .500, and none with more than 46 wins. Last season, when Durant played his most games since the 2018-19 season, the Suns still won “only” 49 games. They may not hit that mark this season.

Bonus bet: Suns to enter Western Conference play-in tournament (+185)

If the season ended today, the Suns would just miss the tournament as the sixth seed. But sorted by scoring margin, the Suns would just miss the tournament on the other side in 11th place. The West is deep and the Pacific Division is the most competitive division in the NBA, with all five teams currently above .500. This could easily push the Suns, who just missed the play-in last season as the sixth seed, into the play-in mix this time around.