US optimistic about ceasefire chances, Israelis cynical

On By Littum

US special envoy Amos Hochstein called on Israel, Lebanon and the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah to seize the opportunity before them and agree to a ceasefire that would end the war that has been raging since October 8.

“We have a real opportunity to end this conflict,” Hochstein told reporters in Beirut on Tuesday, adding: “This is a moment of decision-making.”

He spoke amid the Biden administration’s optimism that an opportunity to end the war is close. Both Israel and Lebanon have seen a US proposal for a ceasefire based on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, but was never fully implemented.

That resolution prohibits the operation of armed non-state actors such as Hezbollah in southern Lebanon between the Litani River and Israel’s northern border.

A ceasefire agreement is expected to have an implementation mechanism that ensures Hezbollah cannot rearm and is likely to create a wider buffer zone so that Hezbollah will be behind the Litani River.

A MAN takes a picture as smoke billows in the suburbs of Beirut, where the Hezbollah stronghold was located, after an Israeli attack on Sunday. There is no doubt that Israel would like to see Hezbollah completely removed as a military presence in Lebanon and its dominance within the nation’s politics, says the writer. (credit: Mohammed Yassin/Reuters)

Among Israel’s controversial demands has been the insistence that the IDF be able to attack Hezbollah military targets as well as arms smuggling routes, including along the Syrian-Lebanese border.

Narrowing the gaps in ‘constructive’ conversations

Hochstein is holding talks in Lebanon to finalize details of the ceasefire. He spoke to reporters after meeting Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri but before holding talks with interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Both men support the American cease-fire effort.

The special envoy said his conversation with Berri was “very constructive and very helpful” and “we have continued to narrow the gaps” between all sides.

His goal while in Beirut, Hochstein said, was to help facilitate decision-making around a cease-fire agreement.

“But it is ultimately the decision of the parties to reach a conclusion to this conflict,” he stressed, adding that ending the war “is now within our reach.”

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“The way the window is now, I hope the coming days will bring a decisive decision,” he said.

Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman MK Yuli Edelstein (Likud) expressed the skepticism in Israel about the deal, telling The Jerusalem Post: “It is very far from being finalized.”

The sticking point, he explained, is the IDF’s ability to continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, should it pose a danger to Israel, by ensuring compliance with the agreement.

“It’s no wonder that what’s most important to us, which should be in the deal, is most important to Hezbollah not to be in the deal,” Edelstein said.

“I am of course talking about (the IDF’s) freedom to act after the agreement is signed,” he said.

“Everything else is negotiable.”

The IDF’s freedom of movement is particularly important if the Lebanese army is tasked with ensuring compliance with the agreement.

It is important, he said, that in case Hezbollah tries to rebuild its military potential, the Israeli army will be able to act, especially against arms smuggling.

Should the IDF’s freedom of action be in the agreement, it is possible to sign it, Edelstein said.

A senior Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday that his government and Hezbollah have agreed on the US ceasefire proposal.

Ali Hassan Khalil, an aide to Berri, said Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador to Lebanon on Monday.

“Lebanon presented its comments on the paper in a positive atmosphere,” Khalil said, declining to provide further details. “All the comments we presented confirm the precise compliance with (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions,” he said.

Berri’s aide said the initiative’s success now depended on Israel, and that if Israel did not want a solution, “it could cause 100 problems.”

Israel, he charged, was trying to negotiate while holding Lebanon “under fire,” a reference to an escalation in its bombardment of Beirut and the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs. “This will not affect our position,” he said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forthright about that strategy, telling the Knesset plenary on Monday that Israel was negotiating with Lebanon under fire.

Reuters contributed to this report.