Preview: Canada vs. Suriname – prediction, team news, lineups

Canada can claim a spot in the semifinals in CONCACAF Nations League with a win or tie Tuesday at BMO Field when they host Suriname.

In the first leg, the Canadians scored late and managed to claim a 1-0 victory in the first knockout clash in League A for Natio.

Match preview

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Similar to a year ago, Canada find themselves leading the opening leg of their Nations League quarter-final match, but hoping history doesn’t repeat itself this time around.

Last year they held a one-goal advantage over Jamaica heading home for the second leg, but fell apart, conceding three times in the second half, losing 3-2 and exiting the competition on away goals.

Since losing the third-place match at the Copa America in July, the Canucks are unbeaten in their last four games across all competitions, winning on three of those occasions by a single goal.

Jesse Marsh‘s men have kept two clean sheets in their last three competitive matches and have not conceded more goals in 90 minutes since the Copa America third-place tie with Uruguay (2-2).

Not since the 2022–23 season have they reached the semi-finals of this competition, although the only knockout match they have ever played in Canada was that quarter-final defeat to Reggae Boyz last year.

Tuesday will be the fourth time they face Suriname in a competitive fixture, with Les Rouges boasting a 100% record against Natio all-time, outscoring them by an aggregate margin of 7-1.

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The first-ever Nations League knockout match looked destined to be a positive result for Suriname, who kept the Canadians off the scoresheet until the 83rd minute.

Eventually, fatigue seemed to set in Stanley Menzo‘s men, who had just 34% of possession throughout the match and failed to register a single effort on goal.

However, two of their last three away games have ended in wins for this side, who have scored seven goals and conceded just two over that stretch.

Suriname have won 13 consecutive competitive matches when they have scored multiple times and have not dropped points when doing so since a 2-2 draw against Saint Vincent and the Grenadines in October 2019.

This team has never lost consecutive matches in Liga A in this competition, but has also never followed up a defeat with a win in their next match in the top stage of this competition.

Natio have lost all their meetings against the big three nations of North America (Canada, USA and Mexico), scoring just once in those six contests when they were beaten 8-1 by Mexico in October 1977.

Canada CONCACAF Nations League form:

Canada form (all competitions):

Suriname CONCACAF Nations League form:

Suriname form (all competitions):

Team news

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There were five newcomers to the Canadian starting 11 on Friday who did not start their friendly against Panama as Dayne St. Clair replaced Maxime Crepeau in goal, while Alistair Johnston, Joel Waterman, Ishmael Wife and Tani Oluwaseyi came in for Derek Cornelius, Alphonso Davies, Mathieu Choiniere and joint record goalscorer Cyle Larin.

Physical fatigue will keep Davies out of this encounter, while Larin can match Mark Watson eighth in all-time caps if he features in this match.

Junior Hoilett had the only goal in the first leg of this tie, which was the same Tosaint Ricketts for seventh ever in this program’s history, while Jonathan David and Larin are even for most goals ever with Les Rouges on 30 each.

Menzo inserted three new faces in the opening line-up for Suriname in leg one, with Stefano Denswil, Justin Lonwijk and Djevencio van der Kust comes in for Kenneth Paul, Immanuel Pherai and Virgil Misidjan.

Two of their players selected for this window will seek their first appearances with the senior squad on Tuesday, including Jayden Turfkruier and Jonathan Fonkel.

Gleofilo Vlijtertheir record goalscorer (15 goals), can move into a five-way tie for 10th all-time in caps for the national team in this game, matching previous players Giovanni Waal, Emilio Limon, Ferdinand Jap A Joe and Michael Darson in the process.

Canada’s possible starting lineup:
Crepes; Ahmed, Johnston, Waterman, Bombito, Laryea; Eustaquio, Choiniere, Schaffelburg; Larin, David

Suriname possible starting line-up:
Water; Van Gelderen, Abena, Denswil, Haps; Malone, Pinas; Becker, Paal, Lonwijk; Vlijter

We say: Canada 2-0 Suriname (Canada advances 3-0 on aggregate)

Suriname may be able to compete with the elite teams in CONCACAF, but they have yet to show that they can put any of these sides under duress, which is why we expect Canada to win comfortably.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match, please click here.

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