Sixers-Heat preview: Jimmy Butler trade coming?

On By Littum

The Sixers got a weekend off in beautiful Florida after their horrific loss to the Orlando Magic on Friday night. Now they will return to action in Miami as they face the Heat in hopes of… improving to 3-10 on the season.

Here to talk about a Miami team in a bit of a pinch John Jablonkawho has a huge Heat and NBA analysis on his Substack, Simply Ballin and Everything you can heat. Let’s talk to John:

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Adam Aaronson: I have to lead with a Jimmy Butler question because like his availability for this game, Butler’s future seems very much up in the air right now. From your perspective, what is the current state of Butler’s relationship with the Heat and how real is the chance of him playing for another team in the near future?

John Jablonka: This might be the biggest answer, but anything could be on the table with Butler and I wouldn’t be surprised by whatever happens. Butler gives off a Kawhi Leonard vibe when it comes to how he might feel about anything, whether it’s the team, the front office or what he’s going to do in the future.

Before he came to Miami, the overall vibe was as good as it gets. There were obviously all the rumors and reports about how he’s been a cancer in the dressing room and countless incidents clashing with not only players but coaches and management. But here in Miami, of course, he was immediately welcomed by the fans and everyone in the franchise. I don’t think that has changed at all with him and the relationship with the coaching staff or management.

There was the whole Pat Riley thing calling him out in the press event, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was a regular Wednesday for the Heat. This is the same Butler that had to be held back from going after Erik Spoelstra in a jump before they advanced to a deep playoff run, business as usual. Whatever happens with Butler’s situation, I think it would be an independent decision that he makes because he thinks it’s best for him in other ways, rather than the relationship breaking up.

As for Butler playing for another team, that is a very likely possibility. He and his agent have said he wants to be paid. The Heat were reluctant to give him a contract extension. Depending on his play and how the market may be in the future, everything is on the table. It’s really a weird situation because it depends on so many different factors that can swing the decision either way, so it’s hard to predict.

AA: Once every few years, everyone prepares to write an obituary for this era of Heat basketball — and the team inevitably has a resurgence. Do you believe that’s in the cards this season, or is the time finally right for the Heat to rebuild?

JJ: The logical part of me says it’s over, but the fan is still holding on to what’s left. If it’s not over, it’s definitely the last dance, because even through the thickest of fan glasses, I can’t see another year of this core legitimately competing for a title.

Everything that could potentially lead to a resurgence starts and ends with Butler. In both 2022 and 2023’s deep playoff runs, it all involved Butler playing at a minimum top-10 level. In certain stretches, he played like a top-three player. Any contender needs that caliber of player and if they don’t, nothing else matters. The depth of young players they likely have doesn’t matter. Terry Rozier wouldn’t make a difference. Even the improvement from Tyler Herro would not make the resurgence possible.

I want to believe Butler can move in April. However, he has done everything to show otherwise, and his recent ankle injuries also make it less convincing. I will also point out that the whole idea of ​​Butler flipping the switch is overblown in just the general perception you see on social media. The whole Butler “trolling” the regular season narrative is not what usually happens. He was always involved in the offense. He looked engaged. He was an impactful best player on the Heat in different ways. It hasn’t been like that at all this year.

At the same time, he has given me the greatest benefit of the doubt, and I don’t want to believe that he can’t do it before the time comes. If that happens, they will still need 11 out of 10 things to go right for them. They need the right matchups, injury luck, hot shooting and random breakouts. With so many things to go right, I don’t see them having a similar run to previous years.

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AA: Speaking of Rozier, he is the reason Kyle Lowry is a six. Miami traded Lowry and a first-round pick for Rozier last season (Lowry was then bought out by the Charlotte Hornets, making him a free agent). How has Rozier played since the deal, and how would you rate the Lowry-for-Rozier trade in retrospect?

JJ: If I could I would answer this with “If I talk I’m in trouble” gifs, because it hasn’t been pretty at all.

Rozier has been as advertised. ONE very streaky, consistently inconsistent small guard who needs the ball to be effective but isn’t good at that role due to his ball dominance, poor shooting diet, limited passing and much worse defense than I ever expected. This year has been worse than usual as he came back from a neck injury that was much more serious than you would expect. He’s certainly not that bad when it comes to his scoring and efficiency.

But it was a bad, bad deal. Trading an expiring contract that would have given the Heat more flexibility during the second round and also trading a first-round pick from an already limited war chest doesn’t make much sense.

Initially, I assumed this would be trading a guard that can give you a little shot creation boost and rim pressure that they haven’t had since Goran Dragić. I wasn’t expecting the Rozier-lite version from the Hornets. He should return to at least his career averages, but even when he does, it probably won’t be great or be a significant change.

More Sixers-Heat information

• Date/time: 17 November at 7:30 PM EST

• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

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