What we know about North Korean troops in Ukraine

When rumors first emerged in October that North Korean troops were beginning to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, it was not immediately clear what role they would play.

Their lack of battlefield experience was given as a key reason why they might just be assigned non-combat roles.

But after the United States and Ukraine revealed that North Korean troops have already engaged in combat with Ukrainian soldierstheir role in the fight is reassessed.

Even the number being deployed — originally put at about 11,000 by the Pentagon — has been debated. According to Bloomberg, unnamed sources believe that Pyongyang may actually deploy as many as 100,000 troops.

However, accurate information is difficult to obtain as Moscow and Pyongyang have not responded directly to any of these reports.

So what do we know about the presence of North Korean troops in Russia?

In short, it’s hard to say.

The secretive kingdom may have one of the world’s largest militaries, with 1.28 million active soldiers, but – unlike Russia’s military – the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has no recent experience of combat operations.

Mark Cancian, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that Pyongyang’s army is “effectively indoctrinated but with low readiness”.

However, he says they should not be supposed to be cannon fodder – to add such a characterization is “Ukrainian bravado”.

Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence agencies have said many of the troops deployed to Russia are some of Pyongyang’s finest, drawn from the 11th Corps, also known as the Storm Corps – a unit trained in infiltration, infrastructure sabotage and assassinations .

These soldiers are “trained to withstand a high degree of physical pain and psychological torture,” said Michael Madden, a North Korea expert at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“What they lack in the fight, they make up for with what they can take physically and mentally,” he adds.

Cancian agrees that “if these are special operations forces, they will be much better prepared than the average North Korean unit”.

“Furthermore, the Russians appear to be giving them additional training, probably based on the particular circumstances of the war in Ukraine,” he adds.

This appears to be supported by the emergence of videos on social media showing men believed to be North Koreans in Russian uniforms at what appear to be military training facilities in Russia.

And as the war in Ukraine creeps into its third year, these North Korean troops may be among “the most capable” of the troops available to Russia, said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean army lieutenant general.

Moscow has been recruiting at least 20,000 new soldiers a month to help bolster its war effort, with more than 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded on average daily, according to Nato and Western military officials.

“(Russia) has sent troops to the front without proper training. Compared to such recruits, North Koreans are trained and motivated. They are not battle-tested at the moment, but soon they will not be,” said Lt. Gen. (retd) Chun.

Still, some experts believe the obvious language barrier and unfamiliarity with Russian systems would complicate any combat role, suggesting instead that Pyongyang’s troops would be tapped for their engineering and construction skills.

Given these drawbacks, what is in this deal for the two countries?

Observers say Moscow needs manpower, while Pyongyang needs money and technology.

“For North Korea, (such deployments) are a good way to make money,” said Andrei Lankov, director of the Korea Risk Group.

South Korean intelligence estimates this at $2,000 (£1,585) per soldier per month, with most of this money expected to end up in state coffers.

Pyongyang could also gain access to Russian military technology that Moscow would otherwise have been reluctant to transfer, Lankov adds.

Moscow’s manpower problems have been widely reported, with the US estimating that around 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order – for the third time since the war began – to expand his army.

It has also pursued personnel strategies that “minimize domestic political impact,” such as offering bonuses to recruits who volunteer and enlisting foreigners with the promise of citizenship, said Mr. Cancian of CSIS.

“With Russia reportedly suffering over 1,000 casualties on the battlefield, reducing its own casualties could relieve some pressure on the Putin regime,” said Lami Kim, professor of security studies at the Daniel K Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

The development, which comes at a time when tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen to their highest level in years, worries Seoul.

In October, the North blew up parts of two roads linking it to South Korea, days after accusing Seoul of flying drones into the North’s capital, Pyongyang.

It happened after the two countries engaged in a tit-for-tat balloon campaignthere are thousands of garbage and propaganda balloons flying towards each other’s territories. So does Korea suspended a pact intended to reduce military tensions between themshortly after North Korea said the South was now “enemy number one”.

So it makes sense that South Korea would be uneasy about the North acquiring new military prowess amid these tensions. After all, troops in South Korea have not fought in another major conflict since the Korean War.

According to Mr. Madden and Mr. Cancian, the North Korean troops are believed to be deployed around the embattled Kursk border region, which Moscow has been trying to recapture from Ukraine.

The South fears that “its adversary could boast more hostile capabilities” as a result of the experience its soldiers would gain on the battlefield, said Lt (retd) Chun.

While South Korea has long accused the North of supplying weapons to Russia, it says the current situation has gone beyond the transfer of military material.

It has also expressed “serious concern” over a pact between Pyongyang and Moscow, which promises the two counties will help each other in the event of “aggression” against either country.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has reiterated – at least three times in the past two months – that South Korea will consider helping Ukraine “for defensive purposes”. If this happens, it would mark a shift from the South’s longstanding policy of not supplying arms to countries engaged in active conflict.