Winter Storm Watch starts Thursday for mountains and some snow showers into central Maryland

Report Monday evening

The high mountains of western Maryland and West Virginia are expecting the region’s first snow this week. This may not affect you directly, but there is a reason why you may hear or read a lot about it. It goes beyond hype or clickbait.

• This is the first snow of the season within driving distance
• We just had 38 dry days in a row and are in a major drought
• We just had the warmest autumn ever
• The setup is a pattern change
• Finally, the atmosphere is set up for some snow flurries or showers to reach central Maryland. Some models have a chance of a dusting in the colder suburbs…but that’s for entertainment at this point.

Winter Storm Watch

Thursday to Saturday

NOTE: The mountains are 3,000+ and 4,000+ peaks

• Snow between 6 and 12 inches, with heavier amounts possible
• Winds can gust up to 50 mph

Reminder: Drought monitor

The setup:

Rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, and behind the cold front, a strong upper-level low will nearly stall over central New York, pulling down bitterly cold air through the weekend.

Jet Stream: 500mb Height Anomaly

Wednesday evening to Sunday evening

This is about 18,000 feet above the ground. The blue and green colors represent the coldest air at that level.

VORTICITY

This is a measure of the ‘spin’ in the air. By tracking larger and smaller eddies, we can better understand the energy in the atmosphere that can help ‘pull the air up’. This increase increases the clouds and the development of rain or snow.

Jet Stream: 500mb Vorticity

Wednesday evening to Sunday evening

Snapshot Friday morning

I have highlighted the upper level of Central New York. This is the source of instability, and it will pull down unseasonably cold air from the northwest.

The COLD WIND over The Great Lakes will start The Lake Effect Snow machine. This will be enhanced by the mountains.

Often the air flowing down the other side to lower elevations is warm and dry, so the snow often doesn’t reach east of them…

The trough I’ve marked with the purple line is the upper-level energy that can provide enough for snow and rain showers to survive into central Maryland.

Surface animation: Snow and rain

Wednesday afternoon to Saturday afternoon

The darker blue is where the snow will develop and it will break into long stretches in the mountains throughout the period. It can be heaviest on Friday.

NOTES

• Yes, there could be a mix of snow and rain showers, even around metro Baltimore, while temperatures are above freezing.
• There is little chance that if the snow falls it will stick…unless stronger shocks help it lay and stay on the grass…..
• There is a better chance further west and north in the higher elevations.
• In the area under a winter storm watch, temperatures will be cold enough (above 2,000 feet) for accumulation.

Snapshot: Friday afternoon

This close-up image shows rain (green) and snow (blue) showers reaching central Maryland.

This is a setup for an eruption for ‘things’ to fall. It doesn’t say if it lasts.

Temperatures Friday afternoon

This is a suggestion…and even with 30s in the colder suburbs…it will be above freezing.

Freezing temperatures and accumulation will be limited to the higher elevations of the Winter Storm Watch Zone.

Snow Total “Suggestion” model card

Note that these models show what may fall, but some of it may melt or compress. There is a hint of dusting in the northern suburbs of Baltimore. Again, any snow likely to fall may melt or just stick to the grass…

GFS model

ECWMF model

National mix of models

If you’re a snow lover like me, you’re a little excited and have a lot of Faith in the Flakes for more this coming season.

I will continue to track this and may travel out there to report live.

FITF

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See also

La Nina Watch Update: November 2024

FOUR SUPER MOONS OF 2024

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PLAN A WEATHER-BASED STRAIN ASSEMBLY

Severe weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

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REPEAT MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I realize there are some spelling and grammar mistakes and occasional other mistakes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it: I am dyslexic and found out during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had come this far without knowing it and not to let it be a crutch going forward. It was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make matters worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasts. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.

There has been no editor to check my work while you write and to have it ready to air in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of web team which helps me maintain this page. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is free. It could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and maybe prove that what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF