UFC 309 – Chandler, Oliveira, Masvidal, Holloway? Who is McGregor leading the draw now?

Believe it or not, Michael Chandler would probably still be waiting for Conor McGregor if it weren’t for Charles Oliveira’s appeal.

Chandler (23-8) returns from a two-year layoff on Saturday when he faces Oliveira (34-10) in the co-main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden. The deadline was essentially self-imposed, as Chandler spent the last 24 months promoting and preparing for a lucrative fight against McGregor that never materialized – a decision that has left him open to, in his words, something heavy” public shaming” online.

And yet, Chandler was still open to the idea of ​​waiting until 2025 — until the UFC offered him a chance to fight Oliveira, who beat him in 2021, and win a lightweight title.

“Had the UFC not offered me Oliveira in a No. 1 fight, it would have been a tough decision,” Chandler told ESPN when he moved on from McGregor. “But when they offered it to me, it was an easy decision. I want the Conor fight, I was waiting for the Conor fight, I deserved and deserved the Conor fight, but at some point you think, ‘Well, Oliveira is a great possibility.'”

Chandler’s willingness to wait for McGregor is embedded in his belief that the 36-year-old superstar will eventually fight again. McGregor has not fought since breaking his leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in 2021. He was scheduled to face Chandler at UFC 303 in June, but pulled out due to an injured foot. McGregor has consistently stated that he wants to fight again, but the MMA community is beginning to doubt him.

To get a sense of what Chandler is or isn’t moving on from, ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas to put a hypothetical betting line on McGregor returning to the Octagon in 2025. Director of Race and Sports John Murray put a line by 3-1 against McGregor ever fights again.

“I just strongly believe it doesn’t make sense for him to fight again,” Murray told ESPN. “He’s got so much money and other income streams coming in. He’s a family man. The last time he fought, he was seriously injured. He’ll be 37 next year. Why would he put himself through another training camp He’ll never be in able to win a belt again.

Chandler, who trained against McGregor on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2023, admits he’s biased but still believes McGregor isn’t done.

“I think it’s higher than 50% he fights again,” Chandler said. “Maybe I’m just different, but when I finally say I’m retired, I’m never coming back. Conor never did. He’s always teased about coming back. I don’t think he wants his legacy to be that he broke his leg, hyped everyone up for a return and then pulled out against Michael Chandler, I don’t think he wants that to be the end of him.

If Chandler is right – and McGregor is fighting in 2025 – it means Chandler is potentially taking a big risk by fighting Oliveira on Saturday. If he loses for the fourth time in his last five fights, the landscape for a potential McGregor fight could change, and not only would he have waited two years for nothing, he could end up waiting two years just to see the McGregor fight go to someone else when he finally returns.

“One hundred percent I’ve put that fight in jeopardy and almost increased the chances of it never happening by taking this,” Chandler said. “I’ve given it up now, only to see it come back later. And that’s fine. I’m betting on myself.”

Chandler and Las Vegas agree on that point, although he believes he will beat Oliveira and face McGregor in the first quarter of next year before moving on to a title shot. ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook to put odds on McGregor’s most likely opponent should he return in 2025, and Chandler came in as seventh most likely option.

McGregor’s most likely opponent if he returns in 2025

Jorge Masvidal, +225

Outside of McGregor, Masvidal is one of the biggest stars the sport has produced in the past 10 years. Masvidal, 39, retired in 2023 on the heels of a four-fight skid, but has since announced he plans a UFC comeback. Masvidal fights at 170 pounds, the most likely weight class McGregor would return to. This would be one of the most lucrative opportunities for McGregor’s return.

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Charles Oliveira, +250

McGregor targeted Oliveira heavily online when he held the lightweight championship between 2021 and 2022. Oliveira’s stock skyrocketed during his championship tenure, and McGregor has previously expressed interest in fighting in Brazil, Oliveira’s home country. “Conor doesn’t want to fight Oliveira,” Chandler suggested. “A fight between me and Conor is much more exciting for him than a fight against Oliveira.”

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Max Holloway, +350

McGregor has a win over Holloway from 2013, when they were each moving up the featherweight ranks. Holloway has become a household name in the UFC and still holds onto the BMF belt despite coming up short in a featherweight title fight against Ilia Topuria last month. McGregor would have a size advantage over Holloway and who knows how much a BMF belt might appeal to him at this point.

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Nate Diaz, +800

A trilogy meeting between McGregor and Diaz always felt inevitable until two years ago when Diaz left the UFC. He could always return — he’s never signed an MMA deal with any other company — but that feels more like a long shot than a certainty at this point. “I’ve always looked at Nate as the No. 1 option for Conor because of their history, but does the UFC want to be in business with Nate anymore?” Chandler said. “They’re not right now.”

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Dan Hooker and Justin Gaethje, +1400

Two funny names that have been linked to McGregor at times in the past, but never in a really serious way.

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Michael Chandler, +1800

This shows how far Chandler’s chances of a McGregor fight have fallen in the eyes of Westgate Superbook following the two-year layoff. The implied odds on a +1800 payout are just over 5%.

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Dustin Poirier and Ilia Topuria, +3000

McGregor’s two losses to Poirier in 2021 have never sat well with him, but with Poirier looking at retirement, it feels like this rivalry is over for good. Topuria is an interesting name to throw around as he is one of the biggest rising stars in the sport. The UFC would have a lot to gain by giving Topuria the exposure that would come with a McGregor fight. That said, there hasn’t been any momentum in this direction yet.