A third November storm, Sara, signals that a busy hurricane season is not over yet

SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — As the third named storm to emerge during November, Tropical Storm Sara serves as a reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season isn’t quite over.

Sara formed in the western Caribbean Sea before making landfall Thursday on the northern coast of Honduras, dumping torrential rain in a slow weekend across parts of Central America. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm could dump up to 40 inches (101.6 centimeters) of rain in some areas and was expected to move over Belize on Sunday before spreading across the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday.

Sara follows two other named storms so far this month. Tropical Storm Patty brought heavy rain to the Azores and disappeared without making landfall. So Hurricane Rafael hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before tearing up Cuba as a Category 3 storm.

That has made for an unusually active last month for the hurricane season, when forecasters typically see a single named storm every year or two. And the 2024 season still has two weeks left.

Here are some things to know about hurricanes in November.

Why does hurricane season typically end in November?

The hurricane season for storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Although named storms have been known to form before and after the six-month period, the hurricane season reflects the months when weather conditions are more favorable for producing tropical storms and hurricanes.

Ocean temperatures must reach at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 Celsius) to fuel hurricanes. Hurricane season is also when the upper atmosphere tends to have reduced wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction that tear hurricanes apart.

Those hostile winds tend to pick up later in the fall, making it harder for November storms to form, said Levi Silvers, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

“We have the water temperatures to allow these storms to form,” Silvers said. “But it is increasingly unlikely that we will get the favorable winds.”

How unusual are hurricanes in November?

Based on the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, November typically sees a tropical storm every year or two. Storms that strengthen into hurricanes are rarer during the last month of the season, with one occurring generally every two years, according to the hurricane center.

Since 1851, a total of 125 tropical storms have been recorded during November, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. About half of those storms, 63, became hurricanes. And 12 strengthened to major hurricanes with winds above 110 mph (177 km/h).

Earlier this month, Rafael forced the evacuation of 283,000 people in Cuba and destroyed 460 homes. It was the Atlantic basin’s first hurricane in November since 2022, when the season ended with three storms. One of them, Hurricane Nicole, became the first November hurricane to make landfall in Florida since 1985.

Only two other November hurricanes are known to have hit the United States, in 1861 and in 1935, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

What are some notable November storms?

Since 1953, there have been seven November hurricanes destructive enough to have their names withdrawn, McNoldy said.

The last ones were hurricanes Eta and iota, both Category 4 storms when they slammed into Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast two weeks apart in November 2020. The back-to-back hurricanes were blamed for a combined 239 deaths and $8.2 billion in damage across Central America.

They hit at the end of the most active hurricane season on record with 30 named storms. The busy 2020 season exhausted the year’s alphabetical list of storm names by mid-September. Later storms, including Eta and Iota, were identified using Greek letters.

Other destructive November hurricanes that had their names withdrawn were Otto in 2016, Paloma in 2008, Noel in 2007, Michelle in 2001 and Lenny in 1999, according to McNoldy.

Is climate change expanding the threat from hurricanes?

There have been 18 named storms since 2000 that formed outside of the official hurricane season, either before June or after November. One of them, Hurricane Alex, made landfall on January 12, 2016.

Does this mean human-caused climate change is lengthening hurricane season?

“The role I could see climate change playing in extending the boundaries of the traditional hurricane season is the warming ocean,” McNoldy said, noting that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have remained unusually warm in mid-November.

However, scientists still have unsettled questions about what impact climate change may have on seasonal wind shear patterns that tend to keep tropical cyclones at bay outside of the official hurricane season, Silvers said.

“The idea that we’re seeing more hurricanes with climate change is still pretty controversial,” Silvers said. “I think what seems clear is that we’ve had a lot of powerful hurricanes and rapidly intensifying hurricanes. It may be that with climate change you won’t get more hurricanes, but you’ll get stronger hurricanes.”