Five College Football Playoff chaos scenarios: Big 12 out? No. 2 Indiana? SEC champion LSU?

Although the College Football Playoff race is coming into focus with three weeks left in the regular season, there’s still plenty of time for chaos to turn everything upside down.

Just take a look at last year. Texas and Alabama were No. 7 and no. 8 at this point in the season and both made it to the four-team Playoff. A lot can happen, especially when the bracket expands to 12.

And even if you think your team is a lock, college football is unpredictable, so there are some chaotic scenarios that could arise, no matter how far-fetched they may seem today. Only 16 teams have a better than 20 percent chance of making the post, according to my College Football Playoff projection model. But it simulates the season 100,000 times, meaning I can sift through each iteration and find some particularly wild results that bring quite a few more teams into the picture, as 27 teams have at least a 1 percent chance of making it.

Let’s dig into five of the most chaotic scenarios and wildest brackets that are still technically plausible, even if highly unlikely.

Indiana is No. 2, and the big 12 are left out

In this version of the 2024 season, Indiana runs the table, including a win at Ohio State, and finishes as the No. 2 seed after winning its first Big Ten title since 1967. That bumped previously undefeated Oregon to No. 5 seed and Ohio State down to no. 8 seeds. The Buckeyes will host a first-round game in Columbus, but it would be quite the fall for a team that has hopes of winning the Big Ten and grabbing the No. 1 seed. 1.

To round out the rest of the first-round byes, Clemson wins to take the ACC title and Boise State wins and manages to be the fourth-highest ranked conference champion out of the Mountain West. You might assume the Big 12 champion would be in this spot or at least the fifth-highest ranked champion, but not so fast! Four-loss TCU, still technically alive in the Big 12 title race, comes out of nowhere to make a run to win the conference in this simulation, meaning the Big 12 is left out of the Playoff altogether. Tulane wins the AAC and moves in as the fifth conference champion and No. 12 seeds.

The last interesting part here is that Notre Dame loses to USC, but Alabama and Georgia also drop another game to finish the season 9-3. My algorithm keeps the 10-2 Fighting Irish ahead despite one of their losses coming to Northern Illinois, though it’s possible the committee would penalize them more heavily for that loss.

Colorado creeps in and the bubble debate gets loud

This iteration isn’t as spicy at the top, with Ohio State and Texas winning, but it does feature SMU and Boise State snagging the other two byes in the first round. The other interesting part here is that Colorado wins the Big 12 and enters the College Football Playoff as the fifth-highest conference champion, giving it the No. 12 seed with a road trip to Oregon. BYU’s quest for an undefeated season is denied by the Buffs, but it remains in playoff contention as the No. 8-seed – and it is rewarded with a home game against Georgia.

Alabama claws its way back into the SEC title game, but falls to Texas, resulting in the No. 7 seed and a matchup with 11-1 Indiana. This scenario would cause a heated bubble debate, with Penn State losing to Minnesota to finish 10-2, but backing into the Playoff to travel to No. 1 Notre Dame. 11. That gives it the last spot over 10-2 Tennessee and 10-2 Miami.

Surprise byes creates a dream first round

Ole Miss keeps the momentum going after its 18-point win over Georgia to go on and win the SEC by coming to Atlanta via a lengthy tiebreaker process. Boise State grabs the No. 3 after Iowa State bounced back from two consecutive losses to win the Big 12, its first conference title since 1912. Oregon beats Texas for the No. 5 seed, but instead of hosting a group of 5 teams, it gets 10-3 ACC champion Clemson.

And while this is a highly unlikely repeat of the simulation, the matchups in the first round are incredible. Clemson travels to Oregon, Tennessee to Texas, Georgia to Penn State and Indiana to Alabama, with Notre Dame (10-2), Miami (11-2) and BYU (11-2) the first three teams out. The good thing about chaos occurring in conference championship games is that it can create some highly anticipated first-round games on campus sites.

The Big 12 gets a team in … but not its champion

Boise State drops a game down the stretch but still manages to win the Mountain West championship, opening the door for Army to receive the No. 4 seed and get a first-round bye as the AAC champion. Remember, the traditional Army-Navy game doesn’t figure into the College Football Playoff equation, so Army will still have its annual rivalry matchup between Selection Sunday and a New Year’s quarterfinal.

Penn State again loses to Minnesota in this scenario, but still gets the nod after USC upset Notre Dame. Notre Dame and Alabama are the first teams out at 10-2 and 9-3, respectively.

Have you noticed something missing? It’s actually the Big 12 champion: In this scenario, BYU goes 12-0 in the regular season but loses to West Virginia in the Big 12 title game. West Virginia doesn’t have the resume to make it on the field, while BYU only falls to No. the 6 seed. Boise State gets the no. 12 seed as the fifth highest ranked champion.

If you haven’t noticed by now, the Big 12 has a real chance of not getting its playoff champion if chaos ensues in its championship run.

What if LSU wins the SEC?

Hey Boise State. The Broncos win and a bunch of other chaos — including an Oregon loss to Washington in the regular season — allows them to jump up to No. the 2 seed. And while you might think nothing is more shocking than that, the highest-seeded SEC team is Texas at No. 5 with a record of 11-2. Yes, that’s right: No SEC team gets a first-round bye in this iteration because three-loss LSU makes a run (with a little help) to upset Texas in the SEC title game.

LSU would probably move higher in the rankings if it makes an unlikely SEC title run, but I have to go with what the algorithm spit out: no. The 12 seed and a rematch with Texas in Austin! Regardless, the drama that would unfold over the next month would be incredible, with LSU knocking Alabama out of the Playoff picture over the conference championship weekend.

(Top photos of Kurtis Rourke and Kalani Sitake: Michael Reaves and Chris Gardner/Getty Images)