Big 12 Chaos Meter: More drama for BYU? Can Colorado keep charging toward the title race?

On By Littum

Kudos to the Playoff Selection Committee for giving BYU more credit for its strong resume and moving the Cougars up in the rankings, even if it was a week later than it should have been. Now, about the rest of the Big 12 — seriously, how did Iowa State fall all the way already?

This week’s big 12 chaos meter: 4/5

The closer we get to the conference title game, the more the excitement builds. All three of the league’s Top 25 teams will be tested this weekend.

Big 12 title run and College Football Playoff picture

Which teams are contenders for the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff? Let’s check in on the league run:

Title (and playoff) candidates: BYU, Colorado, Kansas State

Still on the hunt: Arizona State, Iowa State, West Virginia

Middle of the pack: TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston

Forget about it: Kansas

Eliminated: Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah

• Full Big 12 position

Let’s dive into this weekend’s 12 big matchups, ranked based on potential for mayhem.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and Saturdays unless otherwise noted.)

High potential for chaos

Kansas (3-6, 2-4 Big 12) at No. 6 BYU (9-0, 6-0), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

The Holy War lived up to the billing and then some. Now the Cougars face another potentially treacherous late-night kickoff.

If you left the Jayhawks for dead, surprise! Jalon Daniels showed shades of his early 2023 form by cutting up Iowa State’s secondary, Devin Neal rolled and Kansas exploded for 532 yards. It’s amazing how good the Jayhawks can look when they don’t give the ball to their opponents.

If they can muster a similar effort in Provo, it will take everything BYU has to come out unscathed, and with it the 2.5-point spread. The Cougars defense needs an effort like its second-half shutout against Utah. The Cougars need a more consistent offensive performance than the 5.2 yards per carry allowed. game and three sacks last week.

BYU’s flair for the dramatic, including its escape from Salt Lake City, has spurred comparisons to 2022 TCU. The Cougars have won four games by 6 or fewer points and tested fate at least twice, so it seems fitting. Can the BYU creative team help complete the analogy by creating some meme-worthy postgame videos?

After the Jayhawks, BYU has Arizona State and Houston on its way to the Big 12 title game.

Chaos potential: 5/5

Line: BYU -2.5

Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) at no. 16 Kansas State (7-2, 4-2), at 19, ESPN

This game is a fitting snapshot of the Big 12 season. Kansas State is the only preseason contender that hasn’t been a significant disappointment, yet still looks on the outside looking in on the conference title race. Arizona State is in the same position in the rankings despite being picked late this summer. The Sun Devils are coming off a creditable win over UCF without star running back Cam Skattebo, who, despite missing the game with an injury, tried to convince head coach Kenny Dillingham to let him suit up during the third quarter.

Dillingham told reporters Wednesday that Skattebo is expected to play “unless something changes.”

The Wildcats are coming off an off weekend after a surprising loss to Houston, with quarterback Avery Johnson hoping to bounce back from a pair of costly second-half interceptions. Both teams would need help — and likely need wins — to reach the Big 12 championship, something Arizona State could affect when it faces BYU next week. Regardless, this season has already been a huge accomplishment for Dillingham and the Sun Devils. K-State is riding a 10-game winning streak with Cincinnati and the Farmageddon final against Iowa State awaits on the other side of ASU.

Chaos potential: 5/5

Line: Kansas State -7.5

Medium chaos potential

Utah (4-5, 1-5) at no. 17 Colorado (7-2, 5-1), Noon, Fox

The buffaloes have a clear path to the common fisheries policy. Two-way star Travis Hunter is the leading Heisman contender, quarterback Shedeur Sanders is a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft and head coach Deion Sanders … premiering a new talk show about something called Tubi next week? Here we are now, entertain us.

With the caveat that winning streaks and playoff hopes are fickle, let’s give proper credit to Colorado, which in less than two seasons under Sanders has gone from all bloat to a top-20 team with a legitimate chance to win a conference championship and contend for a national title. The combination of shade and dirt shoveled on the Buffs as recently as the Week 2 loss to Nebraska was premature.

Colorado has Utah, a trip to Arrowhead Stadium against Kansas and Oklahoma State standing between it and the Big 12 title game, starting with a Utes team angry but deflated after last Saturday’s contentious loss to BYU. (What screams “Big 12 mayhem” more than AD foul play?)

The Holy War showed what even a depleted Utah is capable of, which should keep the Buffs on high alert, but it will be difficult for the Utes to get up to the same level of play after a loss. Utah is also back to Isaac Wilson at quarterback with Brandon Rose out for the season, joining Cam Rising on the shelf.

Chaos potential: 3/5

Line: Colorado -11.5

Cincinnati (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa State (7-2, 4-2), 6 p.m. 8 p.m., Fox

Two teams are riding two-game losing streaks. Cincinnati lost a tough game at home to West Virginia, outgaining the Mountaineers 436 total yards to 248, but hampered by a trio of turnovers by quarterback Brendan Sorsby, including a crushing 79-yard pick six on an improper throw.

Sorsby has been solid and is the biggest reason for the team’s improvement over last season, but a poor game last Saturday means Cincinnati must win one of its last three to reach bowl eligibility: at Iowa State, at Kansas State or at home against TCU.

It feels like just yesterday that Iowa State was in a great position in the Big 12, matching the best start in program history at 7-0 and controlling its own destiny. Now the cyclones have broken up and are losing steam. Kansas jumped them on Saturday, then finished off a late comeback effort when ISU quarterback Rocco Becht threw a pick-six. Iowa State is in the same position as K-State: The Cyclones are not out of it, but they need a win to help them reach the conference title game.

A subplot: Cincinnati first-year defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt spent the previous eight seasons as the linebackers coach at Iowa State. Cyclones offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser told the Cedar Rapids Gazette: “He’s going to try to murder me on Saturday – and murder us. In a good way. He’s a great guy.”

Chaos Potential: 3/5

Line: Iowa State -7.5

Baylor (5-4, 3-3) at West Virginia (5-4, 4-2), 4 p.m., ESPN2

“Not-So-Hot Seat Bowl?” By midseason, Baylor coach Dave Aranda’s Bears were 2-4, had lost their first three conference games, and bowl eligibility seemed unlikely. Now the Bears have won three in a row, including a goal against rival TCU. A win in one of the final three games advances Baylor to the postseason, and the Bears could win more thanks to a revitalized offense led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson.

West Virginia coach Neal Brown coached himself off the hot seat with a strong 2023 campaign, and while the ride this year has been bumpy, the Mountaineers have won two straight and four of their last six.

Baylor and West Virginia didn’t meet until becoming conference mates a dozen years ago, but they’ve had some wild games. A breakdown of past scores between these two: 70-63, 73-42, 62-38, 17-14, 38-36.

Seven of the teams’ 12 meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer, including the last two, each with the Mountaineers winning by 3. Baylor has never won in Morgantown but is favored this weekend. Over/under is just 58.5.

Chaos potential: 3/5

Line: Baylor -1.5

Low chaos potential

Houston (4-5, 3-3) at Arizona (3-6, 1-5), 10:15 p.m. Friday, FS1

Who would have imagined in the preseason that Houston would be the team with the better prospects when these two met in Week 12?

But it’s the Cougars who are on the rise, winning three of their last four games, including an upset of Kansas State on Nov. 2. Houston is playing for something: bowl eligibility in Willie Fritz’s first year. That would be a big step for a program that was shut out in back-to-back games in September and started 1-4.

Arizona has gone in the opposite direction. After starting 3-1, the Wildcats have lost five straight and by an average of 20.8 points, the most recent a 56-12 shellacking at UCF. Brent Brennan spent part of his Monday press conference pleading with fans to show up for home field advantage.

“I know everyone is frustrated,” he said. “We need them to show up anyway.”

It won’t cost much for fans to take Brennan on it.

Chaos Potential: 2/5

Line: Arizona -1.5

(Photo of Colorado’s Anquin Barnes Jr. (No. 92), Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig (No. 7) and Tawfiq Thomas (No. 95): John E. Moore III / Getty Images)