How the NWSL semi-finals will be won – Equalizer Soccer

Credit: Lucas Boland-USA TODAY Sports

If anyone expresses confidence in the two teams that will be playing in the NWSL Championship, they have a beautiful beachfront property outside of Phoenix they would love to sell you.

This is the rare season when the quality that separates the four semi-finalists is tissue paper thin, while the quality that separates the four from all others is the largest in history. Orlando Pride, Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC and Kansas City Current were wildly better than the rest of the league, but not much better or worse than each other. Five points separated the Shield-winning Pride from fourth-placed Current. Only one point separated Kansas City from second place Spirit. These are four historically great teams that can claim no real advantage over their semifinal (and potentially championship) opponents.

So how can we predict this weekend’s results? We will use an average of two projection models – Larner Elo model and that American football analysis model — to frame what the data says about the strengths and weaknesses of these four teams and what could swing the results in one direction or another.

Saturday: Washington Spirit (2) vs. Gotham FC (3)

Spirit Odds: 58%
Gotham Odds: 42%

Fans and the clubs themselves have tried to turn this match into a rivalry. Both have struggled since the league’s inception in 2013. The journey from Red Bull Arena to Audi Field (or, for the old heads, from Yurcak Field to the Maryland SoccerPlex) is the second shortest in the league.