College football odds, predictions, best games saturday

The Arkansas Razorbacks will look to bounce back from a 32-point loss to Ole Miss when they host the Longhorns on Saturday afternoon.

As for Texas, it can ill afford a slip-up now that it’s up to third in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The Razorbacks proved they could be dangerous, given their 19-14 home victory over the seventh-ranked Volunteers.

However, the Longhorns are a vastly superior offensive team that should be motivated to start quickly as they try to avenge a 40-21 loss the last time they faced Arkansas in 2021.

Texas vs. Arkansas odds

(12 p.m. ET, ABC)

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Texas	-12.5 (-110)	-485	Over 57.5 (-110)
Arkansas	+12.5 (-110)	+375	Under 57.5 (-110)

Texas vs Arkansas prediction

Texas Longhorns betting preview

Per Game On Paper, Texas enters this contest as the second-ranked team in the country based on the Net Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play metric (+0.39).

This team is solid on both ends of the ball, and quarterback Quinn Ewers should be brimming with confidence after throwing five touchdowns against Florida.

Ewers’ performance in the passing game will be critical because the secondary is where the Razorbacks are most vulnerable, ranking 121st in both EPA per Dropback (-0.15) and Passer Success Rate (47.2%).

Notably, the Arkansas defense has allowed nine passing plays of 50 or more yards — the second-worst mark among FBS schools.

With this matchup almost tailor-made for Ewers and his ability to throw the deep ball, it’s hard to see how the Razorbacks will slow down this Longhorns offense.

Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green should be back under center after sitting out the second half of the Ole Miss game with a knee injury.

While there’s a lot to like about the dual-option quarterback, who has the physique of a bruiser at 6-foot-6, he can be a bit turnover-prone as he has thrown at least one interception in six of the nine games he have played with so far.

A closer look reveals that Green might not be as much of a threat on the ground when facing quality SEC defenses.

He had 13 carries for six yards against Texas A&M, nine for minus-5 yards against Tennessee, six for minus-10 when facing LSU and 10 for 16 recently against Ole Miss.

Also, Ole Miss sacked Green five times and he was sacked three times in five other games this season.

These sacks indicate that Green has clearly been under pressure inside the pocket, which likely led to these interceptions.

With the Longhorns fifth in takeaways (2.2 per game), they’ll be ready to capitalize on any mistakes from Green early.

Longhorns vs Razorbacks Pick

While I like Texas to win this game, I’m a little leery of putting up double-digit points with the possibility of a backdoor cover late.

As a result, I prefer to back the Longhorns on the first half spread at -6.5.

Texas will easily be the best team that Arkansas will face this season. If you look at the Razorbacks’ win over Tennessee, you’ll see that while the Volunteers are a quality defensive unit, their offense is woeful, ranking 90th in Adjusted EPA per Play (-0.04).

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There is no doubt that Arkansas should be applauded for defeating Tennessee. Texas, however, is in a completely different ballpark.

With Arkansas likely needing some time to adjust to the Longhorns’ speed, a first-half play makes plenty of sense at this spot.

Best Game: Texas 1H -6.5 (-122, DraftKings)

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Why Trust New York Post Bets

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has cashed in two 15-game teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-game parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. Recently, he precisely selected finalists for the European Championship in 2024 and the Copa America.