November Cold, windy storms, even snow are ahead

A change in the weather pattern this coming week will usher in more typical November conditions towards the Central and East, including colder air, a few windy storms and even the first snowfall of the season for some.

Colder, finally: It hasn’t felt like winter is around the corner in the south lately. Instead, it has been warmest first two weeks of any November on record for dozens of cities from Texas to Florida to the southern Appalachians, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

And that’s where the upcoming reality check might be felt the most.

This colder air should arrive in the Plains around Wednesday, then quickly spread across the rest of the South. lower midwest and east Thursday. It could hang into the following weekend.

We have some examples of forecast low temperatures late this week on the map below. Lows in the 30s and 40s will be common in the south. Even Florida can have some chilly mornings in the 40s and 50s. Meanwhile, highs in the 40s and a few 30s will be the rule in the Midwest and interior Northeast.

(SHORT: 10-day forecast for highs and lows in the United States)

Two storms: A pair of low pressure systems will affect the central and eastern US during the week.

The first of those will drench parts of the Plains Sunday and Monday, including a threat of a few severe thunderstorms, before finishing as a windy storm over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Strong storms are possible Sunday and Monday in the southern plains.

But most of this first storm likely won’t have enough cold air for snow, even over much of the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of southern Canada.

(For even more detailed tracking of weather data in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

But shortly after the first system winds down, a stronger storm is expected to develop near the Great Lakes or Northeast by late week.

Northeast rain forecast: Given the recent wildfires and the flash drought during one of the driest autumns on record, the Northeast’s Interstate 95 corridor is in desperate need of a soaking.

Unfortunately, the first storm will likely blow over before producing any significant rain in the Northeast.

The second storm could bring at least one period of light rain from Maine to Maryland by the end of the week.

Any snow? As we mentioned earlier, the first storm won’t have much cold air to work with.

However, the second, stronger storm could be just cold enough to generate some wet snow showers in parts of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast later this week, especially in the Appalachians. A slushy few inches could accumulate in parts of the southern Great Lakes region with heavier snow in the Appalachians.

For some, it may be the first sluiced accumulations of the season.

And as this second stronger storm hangs around for a while, it could eventually turn on the lake-effect snow machine in parts of the Great Lakes snow belts next Friday into next weekend.

(MORE: Is a snowless east unusual at this time of year?)

Why does the pattern change: The short answer is that the wind flow in the atmosphere will be temporarily blocked.

A high pressure bubble, known as the Greenland Block, will act as a temporary roadblock, forcing a deep low pressure system to become stuck over the east.

This is why the second storm system and the cold air may last several days in the east.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has covered national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him X (formerly Twitter), Thread, Facebook and Blue sky.