Russia has increased Ukraine drone strikes by 44% since the Trump election

LONDON — Russia increased the intensity of its long-range drone strikes on Ukrainian cities by about 44% in the week following President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, ABC News analysis shows.

The scale and complexity of drone strikes by both Russia and Ukraine have been steadily increasing since the full-scale war began in February 2022. In the past five weeks, around 4,500 UAVs have crossed the shared border in both directions.

But Trump’s election victory – confirmed in the early hours of November 6 – coincided with an increase in Moscow’s use of Iranian-made Shahed attack drones to bomb Ukrainian targets across the country.

The week since Trump’s victory saw Russia launch 641 strike drones into Ukraine, per daily figures published by the Air Force of Ukraine – an average of more than 91 UAVs every day.

The Air Force of Ukraine recorded 2,286 launches into its territory in the period from October 1 to November 5, with a daily average of less than 64 UAVs.

The daily number of Russian drones exceeded 100 in three of the seven days since the US presidential election, and this limit has been reached only five times in the previous five weeks. The record of 145 drones was set on November 10.

Russia also often launches ballistic missiles along with its drone interdictions, though far fewer. Ukraine’s air force reported 88 missiles fired into the country between October 1 and November 5, and 12 in the week after the election. This meant a daily average of just over 2 Russian missiles in the period before the election and just under 2 after.

The rate of Ukrainian drone attacks has been stable since the beginning of October, according to figures published in real time by the Russian Defense Ministry on its Telegram channels.

Moscow reported shooting down 1,277 between October 1 and November 5 – an average of just over 35 UAVs each day. In the week after the election, Russian air defenses downed 243 drones, the ministry said, for a daily average of just under 35 UAVs.

ABC News cannot independently verify the figures provided by either Department of Defense. The publicly available totals do not include short-range or reconnaissance drones used in front-line areas. Both Russia and Ukraine may have reasons to inflate the numbers, and the conditions of war mean details may be difficult to confirm.

Nevertheless, the general trend is towards larger and more regular drone interdictions.

“In the next few months up to January 20, we expect a significant increase in the number of launches against Ukraine,” Ivan Stupak, a former officer in Ukraine’s security service, told ABC News.

Stupak said the number of Russian drone strikes has been steadily increasing in recent months. August saw 818 launches, September 1,410 and October 2,072, he said. Moscow’s intention, Stupak suggested, is to cause as much damage to Ukraine as possible before the change in the US administration.

Russia’s increasing frequency of long-range strikes comes alongside its increased intensity of ground attacks, with heavy fighting underway in eastern Ukraine, in Russia’s western Kursk region – parts of which Kyiv’s forces have occupied since August – and with Ukrainian commanders preparing to an expected offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

Both sides have a two-month window to maneuver before Trump returns to the White House, having promised during the campaign to end the war “in 24 hours” by forcing Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table.

Russia is upping the ante “because they want to put Ukraine in the most difficult situation before Trump is inaugurated,” Oleg Ignatov – the International Crisis Group think tank’s senior Russia analyst – told ABC News. “It is good for Russia to be as strong as possible,” he added, but noted that “events on the ground have their own logic” beyond the purely political.

Ukraine will want to continue its own long-range attacks using its rapidly developing and far-reaching drone arsenal. “Ukraine will continue to carry out such types of strikes as long as possible,” Stupak said. “First of all, Ukraine is interested in destroying huge ammunition depots and oil refineries and facilities.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees “positive signals” after Trump’s victory, but added that it is unclear “to what extent Trump will abide by the statements made during his campaign.”

Yet President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that any peace talks must be based on the “new territorial realities” of partial Russian occupation and demanded full sovereignty over four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – as well as continued control of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

The Kremlin has also signaled that it will not begin negotiations with Ukraine to end the war until Ukrainian troops are removed from Kursk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy laid out a five-point “victory plan” in October, which included demands for full NATO membership and longer-range Western weapons – plus permission to use them on Russian territory – as key deterrents.

Zelenskyy’s victory plan also included three “secret annexes” that were presented to foreign leaders but not made public.

ABC News’ Patrick Reevell and Natalia Popova contributed to this report.