Tropical Depression 19 is forming in the Caribbean Sea, expected to become Sara

On By Littum

TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Depression 19 has formed and is expected to soon become Tropical Storm Sara, but the National Hurricane Center says there’s a chance it won’t reach hurricane strength.

From 4 Thursday, the system was located at 15.9N and 81.7W. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and was moving west over the Caribbean Sea at 16 miles per hour.

The NHC expects the disturbance to bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides to parts of Central America as it meanders over the next few days.

The system expected to become Sara could make landfall twice, which would weaken the storm before it moves into the Gulf if the forecast holds.

The system expected to become Sara could make landfall twice, which would weaken the storm before moving into the Gulf if the forecast holds.

Why has the intensity forecast decreased?

Models show the wave interacting with land over Honduras, according to the NHC, which would weaken the system as it would no longer sit over the deep warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

Next Monday, it could make landfall again on the Yucatán Peninsula and move northwest over parts of Belize and Mexico.

If that track holds, FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says the disturbance will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday as a tropical storm.

Models show the disturbance expected to cause Sara to move toward Florida in the middle to late next week.

Models show the disturbance expected to cause Sara to move toward Florida in the middle to late next week.

Once it reaches the Gulf, conditions are much less conducive to further intensification. From there, an area of ​​high pressure will build north of the system, and a “sweep” is expected to the east over Florida.

“By the time it gets here, given this forecast, there won’t be much left for it,” Osterberg said. “It just gets pulled apart by these upper winds and it’s just a big wet mess.”

Models show the system moving toward Florida next week, but probably not as a hurricane.

Models show the system moving toward Florida next week, but probably not as a hurricane.

Any rain or wind from the system would move across Florida by the middle to late next week, according to Osterberg.

The system will bring higher rain chances to Florida next week.

The system will bring higher rain chances to Florida next week.

It’s worth noting that the forecast could see several changes over the next few days, so the disruption will be worth watching through the weekend and into next week.

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