Could it take #1 from Shaboozey?

The competitors is a midweek column looking at artists aiming for the top of Billboard charts and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 23, we look at the chances of a fast-rising hit to end the increasingly historic reign of the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 of the decade.

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s now 17 weeks for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title of longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade and second all-time. The only song still standing in the way of standing alone at the top of the entire Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself announced the impending release of his new song “Light Again,” though we’ll see if he still has the viral chops to protect his own chart — “J Christ,” his first release of 2024, peaked at No. . 69. )

Anyway, it’s the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which mostly slips in its weekly run — though it actually rose 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, which bounced back from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales Chart – but isn’t falling fast enough for anything below that to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song may get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations announced, with Shaboozey up to five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.”

Gracie Abrams, “It’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there’s a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” didn’t look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The secret behind usbut it’s continued to grow each week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week and even passing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. Of course, TikTok has helped — the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 — as does a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world’s biggest tour as a continuing platform, as Abrams continues to open Canadian dates on Taylor Swift’s Eras trek through early December.)

Now the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while it has also climbed to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could propel it to the Hot 100’s 10 next week—and so far, it’s just kept climbing. The question of whether it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey may come down to radio — of course, “A Bar Song” has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while “That’s So True” is just starting to gain traction behind Abrams’ other contemporary hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry.” But “True” is also slowly gaining steam there, so if it continues to grow while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long.

Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Christmas season begins? We’ll see, but if nothing else it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.

Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a good week for Interscope on the charts, because between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists also likely benefited from Friday’s Grammy nominations : ” Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish – a Grammy darling since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 with her debut album – has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit me hard and soft and song and record of the year for “Birds of a Feather”.

Both songs should remain in the mix atop the Hot 100 next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board — “Feather” stays atop the Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” could challenge for its first week atop streaming songs next picture. But it’s unclear whether either have the cards left to play to help get over the hump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy nominee, it’s unlikely the bump there for either will be big enough to make the difference.