Potential tropical storm Sara’s path as chances to form jumps by a third

AccuWeather meteorologists released their initial track for potential Tropical Storm Sara Wednesday morning after the chances of the storm forming over the next two days increased by 30 percent.

As of Wednesday morning, there were no named storms in the Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a high-risk system for development in the Caribbean. On Tuesday, the chances that the system would strengthen into a named storm were at 60 percent, a risk that has since increased to 90 percent, according to the latest NHC update.

As the storm develops, it will officially become Tropical Storm Sara, the 18th named storm of the season.

Tropical Storm Sara’s path is targeting Florida

The NHC has not yet released an official path for the storm, but AccuWeather’s forecast shows Sara becoming a tropical storm Thursday morning and further strengthening to a hurricane Friday. After approaching Honduras on Saturday morning, Sara will circle the Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 3 major hurricane and then head into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will target Florida.

It is unclear whether direct landfall will occur because wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt the storm’s progress. Hurricane Rafael also moved into the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month, but strong winds caused the storm to dissipate before reaching the United States

However, Gulf waters are warmer than average for this time of year, providing sufficient fuel if the hurricane remains organized.

Effects of Tropical Storm Sara

The looming storm comes about a month after Florida battled two back-to-back hurricanes: Hurricane Helene in late September and Hurricane Milton in October.

If the storm makes landfall, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said Newsweek, it would be past its peak and its strength would be waning, although impacts from coastal flooding, heavy rain and strong winds could still be possible.

By next Wednesday, AccuWeather expects the storm to have weakened to a Category 2 hurricane. DaSilva said if Sara makes landfall in South Florida, it will likely be between November 19 and 22.

The NHC forecast added that the system will bring heavy rain to Jamaica regardless of whether a storm develops.

When does Tropical Storm Sara form?

The NHC expects Tropical Storm Sara to form within the next two days.

The NHC forecast said: “A broad area of ​​low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of ​​showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system slowly moving west into the western Caribbean Sea.

“After that, further development is likely as the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend,” the NHC said. “The system is expected to turn slowly to the northwest early next week.”

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will survey the system on Wednesday, the NHC said.