Tropical Storm Sara is likely to form in the Caribbean

On November 13, 2024By Littum

The National Hurricane Center says there is a high chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean.
This system is likely to become the 18th named storm of the season, Sara.
Interests from the western Caribbean to Florida should monitor the forecast for now.

The Atlantic hurricane season’s 18th named storm, Sara, is likely to form in the Caribbean and could head toward the Gulf of Mexico next week, but the forecast includes high uncertainty.

Latest status: The broad low pressure area that will spur this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to identify features that they are monitoring for potential future development.

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The NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission for Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.

Either way, this low will likely form into a tropical low somewhere in the red-shaded area on the map below as it becomes better defined over the next day or two, according to the NHC.

Potential development area

(The possible area of tropical development according to the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of the current disturbance.)

Future strength, tracks in the Caribbean: Guidance on computer models indicates that this system could become Tropical Storm Sara soon after first becoming a depression later this week. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water in mid-Novembercould Sara ramp up to a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea.

Its future track is complicated, uncertain and likely to change in the coming days, so check back with us on weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.

For now, we expect this system to remain in the western Caribbean region through at least Sunday or Monday as it slowly moves west toward Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as a guide to create the projected track.)

Future Sara could stall or drift eastward for a few days while near Central America, and it may even move inland and spin down a bit. Either way, this slow passage can produce lush rainfall with potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Future Sara’s possible Golf scenario next week: Forecast models suggest that a cold front moving across the United States could allow Sara to begin moving northward toward the Yucatan Peninsula, southern Gulf of Mexico or western Cuba by Monday or Tuesday at the latest. The cold front could then accelerate future Sara eastward, bringing it across parts of Florida or Cuba around next Wednesday.

But there are many unknowns at this point when it comes to any impacts that the future Sara may bring to these areas.

These factors include possible land interaction with Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as well as uncertainties surrounding atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.

Changes in the forecast are likely in the coming days, so interests in the Western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this situation closely.

(For even more detailed tracking of weather data in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Typical tropical activity in November

Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and a hurricane every two to three years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have been hit hard by hurricanes in November.

If a storm develops in November, it is usually in the western Caribbean or either the southwest or central Atlantic.

This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south, and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.