NFL odds, picks, best bets

The Dolphins (2-6) travel across the country to play the Rams on “Monday Night Football.”

Here’s how I would bet on the contest.

Dolphins vs. Rams odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Dolphins	+2.5 (-106)	+120	o48.5 (-115)
Aries	-2.5 (-114)	-142	u48.5 (-105)

Dolphins vs. Rams scattered

Miami’s offense is on again. With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, the Dolphins have scored 27 points in back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Bills.

Unfortunately, the Finns lost both matches. They have lost three consecutive games by one score with 10 total points.

I expect the luck in close games to turn, but I don’t expect it to happen Monday night at SoFi Stadium.

The Dolphins rank 28th among NFL stop units in Defensive DVOA, including 27th against the pass. Jalen Ramsey is playing great as the top cornerback, but the entire secondary ranks 28th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and that’s a problem now that Matthew Stafford’s receivers are all healthy — slot corner Kader Kohou could be repeatedly burned by Cooper Coup, if that’s how the matchups shake out.

Stafford’s had an up-and-down season, but he was spectacular against the Vikings two weeks ago and nearly broke the 300-yard mark in a win against the Seahawks last week. During those two weeks, he completed 50-of-77 passes (64 percent) for 580 yards and six scores.

When push comes to shove, I don’t trust Tagovailoa as much as I trust Stafford, especially in big games.

For example, the Dolphins have lost five consecutive primetime games with Tagovailoa starting.

Another example: The Dolphins have lost eight straight road games against winning teams with Tagovailoa under center.

It will be more challenging for Tagovailoa to outplay Stafford if Tyreek Hill isn’t 100 percent — Miami’s top wideout is currently listed as questionable for Monday night’s matchup.

Recommendation: Rams -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Dolphins vs. Rams in total

Still, the Dolphins should move the ball on the Rams defense — with or without Hill.

The Rams’ front seven is extremely young as the front office drafted several linemen in an effort to replace Aaron Donald. While Jared Verse plays light football, the entire stop unit ranks 20th among NFL defenses in pass-rush win rate.

That’s a problem against Tagovailoa, who struggles under pressure (45.3 PFF pass grade) but is nearly perfect from a clean (80.3 PFF pass grade).

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With left tackle Terron Armstead playing the best football of his career, Tagovailoa should have plenty of time to dissect a Rams secondary that ranks 30th in PFF’s coverage grades.

One guy to watch is Miami running back De’Von Achane. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in all four games with Tagovailoa this season, while averaging seven every other game. He’s become a scary pass option out of the backfield, which is quite useful in Mike McDaniel’s offense.

I’m rooting for the Rams to come out on top in the end, but I fully expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth, pass-happy “Monday Night Football” barnburner.

Recommendation: Above 48.5 (-115, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Bets

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a deep fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating 40/1 longshot Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.