A dry election day in metro Detroit could be good for turnout

On By Littum

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Despite Monday morning’s rain and cloudy skies, forecasters predict a mostly dry — and hot — election day in metro Detroit, with a record high daily temperature and gusty winds.

“Hold on to your ballots,” quipped meteorologist Steve Freitag. “It’s going to be windy.”

But no rain, experts said, could be good for turnout.

In southeast Michigan, the National Weather Service expects mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain, but daytime conditions should be dry with temperatures likely in the mid to high 70s and winds up to 40 mph.

Temperatures could reach a new all-time daily high, surpassing the 2022 record of 74 degrees.

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It’s unclear whether that will be a factor in voting behavior, but a 2017 study, “When the Heat Is On: The effect of temperature on voter behaviour in the presidential election,” suggested that temperatures might have some effect on voter turnout.

The study looked at correlations between temperature and voting using data from the 1960 and 2016 presidential elections in each state. It found that for every 1.8 degree rise in temperature, turnout also increased by 0.14%.

The study also noted a theory that heat could also affect voting behavior: more heat tends to agitate voters, making them upset with the incumbent party, while the “good weather effect” tends to lead to a “more favorable assessment of government.”

Nationally, forecasters predict a mostly mild election day. Long lines, rain and snowstorms often deter voters from making a trip to the polls, especially if they aren’t overly enthusiastic about a candidate or issue.

But even with rain in Michigan, some election experts said early voting and absentee voting will be an umbrella for voter turnout, with nearly 44% of the state already voting in the election.

The latest count from the secretary of state’s office showed nearly 3.2 million Michiganders — close to 2 million absentee and 1.2 million through early voting — out of 7.2 million registered voters have cast ballots.

Contact Frank Witsil: 313-222-5022 or [email protected].