Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested in Max Fried

Left handed Max Fried is one of the best pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also associated with the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Postalong with the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that the Yankees have checked in with Fried, like guys like Corbin Burns, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonsobut all of these are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, med Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved in Garrett crochet by the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key challengers to Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has thrown 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per inning. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both slightly better than average, while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings pitched from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch, while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The left wing has also been quite durable during that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and threw at least 165 innings in every full season of that stretch except 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a playoff fixture during his career. A forearm strain limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which might be a concern. An inflamed nerve in the same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta made Fried a qualifying offer that he’s sure to decline while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s latest Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he is sure to become popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays plan to continue with starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has also apparently earned a gig after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot, but adding depth makes sense. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to start next year. Bloss has only three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alec Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix, but likely not until late in the year as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates that the Jays are about $20 million. back for last year’s payroll, even if they couldn’t offer any of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more cap space. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he does not expect the club’s expenses to differ significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to that would apparently use a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs in the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of these areas, but they will need to evaluate how to direct their resources to handle multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit when Burnes became a free agent and left them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer like their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t count on it for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suarez could fill the back, but it makes sense to pursue upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins, while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Views like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich is not yet established in the major leagues.

The big question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It’s now been more than six years since they gave a multi-year deal to a free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long complete and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will snap that streak. But it can come in different forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like that Nathan Eovaldi or a three or four year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s hard to say right now if they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said recently that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brian Bello and Cutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in mid-March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether to accept the qualifying offer the Sox made him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix, but he could also end up in the bullpen. Quinn Priest, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities, but could also end up in the minors or in the pen.

It appears the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades to that group, with Fried and Crochet both quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better as he ultimately threw 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate .

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just finished the worst season of the modern baseball era, they likely won’t return to contention during that time. There has been little to suggest that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9 million next year, meaning he could fit into any club’s budget.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the club is targeting position players in their crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to work out a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four.” Each of Roman Antony, Christian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel nearing their major league debuts, which means Boston will either have to find room for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests that Anthony is untouchable, but is less sure of the others in that group.

The White Sox obviously have to evaluate what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, although it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has gone into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in pitching is logical, both because they seem to be interested in everyone and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting wages and getting the club under the competitive balance sheet in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Sore RosterResourcetheir projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels, and they’re right around the CBT limit before the offseason really begins. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with a cheap one like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago, but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation essentially being reduced to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolinbut they could certainly find room for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payers and therefore face high fines. Sore RosterResourcethey are already slated to have a CBT figure of $272MM next year, not far from the third level of punishment with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows their top priority is bringing back Soto, who will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they end up not succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have plenty of opportunities to redirect that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo to become a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it profitable to go after another outfielder. The club apparently considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then trading Nestor Cortesso some version of it could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable alternatives, but it seems that they will only be really considered once there is more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, the possibilities are endless and each development will have domino effects. If a club lands the Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to switch to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will also have to adjust, as the different parts of the free agent market and the trade market are all interconnected.