MLB qualifying offer explained: What it means for each of the 13 free agents on offer

The first significant deadline of the MLB offseason came and went on Monday night. Thirteen free agents, from Juan Soto to Nick Martinez, now have qualifying offers in hand.

The qualifying offer exists as a competitive balance measure by which clubs can receive compensatory draft picks if a departing free agent declines their one-year offer — this year valued at $21.05 million, the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the sport.

Free agents are not eligible for a qualifying offer if they have received one before or if they were not on the same roster for the entire season. If a free agent rejects the qualifying offer, he remains a free agent and the club that signs him will lose at least one draft pick. This could dampen the offers that some mid-level free agents receive.

Only 13 of the 131 players who have ever received a qualifying offer have accepted it. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see more than one sign this year. Here’s a primer on all 13 players who received a qualifying offer Monday, as confirmed with a league source briefed on the list.

Soto will be the most coveted free agent this winter, and he will almost certainly land some kind of record deal. He will decline the qualifying offer. — Brendan Kuty

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore

At the top of the market, that sort of thing is a formality. And Burnes is at the top of the pitching market after having the third-most innings over the past three seasons with top-10-like production. — Eno Sarris

Alex Bregman, Houston

Bregman will decline the Astros’ qualifying offer, but that won’t stop Houston from pursuing a reunion with its homegrown third baseman. The Astros’ lack of internal options to replace him — combined with a thin free agent market behind Bregman — could increase Houston’s intensity to offer the kind of contract it rarely does and lock Bregman up for the next six or seven seasons. — Chandler Rome

Max Fried, Atlanta

Fried is expected to get a contract of at least five years with an average annual value closer to $30 million than $25 million. The Braves will make at least a cursory effort to re-sign him, but whether they will enter a bidding war is unclear. If the recent past is prologue — see: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson — the fact Atlanta didn’t sign Fried to an extension before he reached free agency doesn’t bode well for the likelihood he’ll stay. — David O’Brien

Willy Adames, Milwaukee

While not nearly as young as the just-turned-26-year-old Soto, Adames will be one of the youngest and most coveted free agents on the market as he enters his age-29 season. The qualifying offer should not suppress interest from candidates. AthleticsTim Britton expects him to get a six-year, $150 million contract, and Keith Law ranks him as the No. 2 free agent, behind only Soto. This is a thin class of free-agent shortstops, with only Ha-Seong Kim (rehabilitating a shoulder injury) coming close to Adames’ projected production in the coming years. Adames had a .794 OPS and 32 homers for the Brewers this season. Defensive metrics have loved him in the past, though he was average at shortstop this season. — Stephen J. Nesbitt

By his standards, Alonso had a slightly worse year, but still hit 34 home runs with a 123 OPS+. There is virtually no expectation that he will accept a qualifying offer, as he has been one of the league’s best right-handed power hitters since debuting in 2019. Also, he hired agent Scott Boras prior to his walk year; he is looking to land a significant multi-year deal. — Will Sammon

Anthony Santander, Baltimore

This situation will be fascinating to watch. He’s a good-not-great free agent (16th according to Keith Law) who is coming off a career offensive year but offers little (if any) defensive value. At 30, with that profile, he might be looking at three-plus years around $20 million annually — so Baltimore should be happy to have him back on the qualifying offer. For other teams, the math gets a little tougher with draft pick compensation attached. They may want to reduce the money or years to reflect the risk they are taking.

Santander could be frustrated in this situation and wondering what else to do – but teams can’t make the qualifying offer to the same player twice, so he can take the one-year guarantee and get back on the market without a draft. compensation attached to his name. Either way, he’s just the kind of mid-level free agent whose market is seriously affected by the qualifying offer. — Eno Sarris

It registered as a bit of a surprise last winter when the Seattle Mariners did not extend Hernández a qualifying offer. A year, 33 home runs and a World Series later, the Dodgers didn’t hesitate to give it to him instead. This was a no-brainer, and it will likely be an easy one for Hernández and his camp to dismiss. The outfielder has been public about his desire to remain a Dodger, but was equally vocal about seeking a multi-year deal last winter before taking a one-year, $23.5 million deal with deferred money. Expect the Dodgers and Hernández to keep talking out the window.

On the other hand, perhaps no player improved his offseason stock more in October than Walker Buehler, who ended the postseason with a streak of 13 consecutive scoreless innings, including six scoreless in the World Series against the Yankees, and not receiving a qualifying offer. Buehler repeatedly avoided any talk of his looming free agency this summer as he struggled to a 5.38 ERA in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was at his best to finish the season and will make some dollars as a result . That made it at least a little surprising that the Dodgers didn’t extend him a qualifying offer — a one-year, $21.05 million deal would have made sense for both sides as Buehler looked to continue to re-establish his value. But while the two sides are expected to have mutual interest, this puts Buehler on the market with his stock on the rise and no draft attached. — Fabian Ardaya

Nick Pivetta, Boston

It was a bit of a surprise move that the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Pivetta. The right-hander, who turns 32 in February, is coming off one of his best years as a starter, posting a 4.14 ERA in 27 games, 26 starts, with a 6 percent walk rate and 28.9 percent strikeout rate. Pivetta has been a durable pitcher over the past five years in Boston with a 4.29 ERA in 121 games, 107 starts, but given the Red Sox’s needs, it seemed like they could allocate $21 million elsewhere. Pivetta may decline and try to sign a longer deal elsewhere, especially after a solid season. AthleticsTim Britton expects to get a three-year, $48 million deal. — Jen McCaffrey

Christian Walker, Arizona

The NL Gold Glove Award winner at first base each of the last three seasons will almost certainly decline the qualifying offer in pursuit of a multi-year deal this offseason. Walker is the best defensive first baseman in baseball with 30-homer power at the plate. He will also be 34 at the start of next season. He could very well surpass the $50 million threshold — in which case the Diamondbacks would get a first-round pick and competitive balance Round A — but it also wouldn’t be surprising if his age affects his market value a bit. — Noah Furtado

Manaea, 32, had the best season of his career in 2024, setting a career high in innings pitched (181 2/3) while posting a 3.47 ERA. While he loved his time playing in New York, it would be downright shocking if he accepted a qualifying offer. It’s likely that agent Scott Boras views Manaea as at least a No. 2-type starting pitcher in this market. That should mean an agreement in the range of three to four years. — Will Sammon

Luis Severino, New York Mets

Unlike Alonso and Manaea, Severino, 30, is the only Mets player on this list who could consider accepting the qualifying offer. He signed a one-year, $13 million deal with New York last offseason and produced a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts.

AthleticsTim Britton projected Severino to earn three years and $50 million on the open market, an average annual value of $16.6 million. But if he accepts, he can earn 40 percent of that guarantee in 2025 and then return to the open market again next winter. — Rustin Dodd

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati

Martinez signed a two-year deal last offseason with the Reds with an opt-out after the first year. He made $14 million in 2024 and was scheduled to make $12 million in 2025 if he didn’t opt ​​out. Martinez, 34, started the season in the rotation because of the team’s injuries, but spent most of the year in the bullpen, posting a 1.86 ERA over 53 1/3 innings. He returned to the rotation for the final two months of the season. His second stint in the rotation went much better than his first, going 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 starts while being named the National League Pitcher of the Month for September when he went 4-1 with a 0, 83 ERA. In his lone loss over that stretch, he allowed just one run in the team’s only complete game of the season.

Both Martinez and the Reds said they had an interest in a reunion if he opts out (it became clear he would), and the Reds’ qualifying offer is a sign they want him back. For Martinez, the qualifying offer would be a significant increase over what he would have made had he not opted out, and Michael Wacha’s contract with the Royals could be a taste of where his value might lie. Wacha signed a three-year deal worth $51 million with an opt-out after two. In the first two guaranteed years of the contract, Wacha will make $18 million. Does Martinez expect to earn more than that? It may come down to the one-year payout versus the promise of a multi-year deal. Having draft pick compensation for his signature could deter other teams and prompt Martinez to accept it instead of playing on the open market.

If Martinez accepts, the Reds can cross off one of their top items on their offseason wish list: veteran starter. Unlike a season ago when Martinez was in a spring training battle to make the rotation, a return would see him in the rotation along with Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and likely Rhett Lowder. — C. Trent Rosecrans

(Top photo of Alex Bregman: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)