Trump’s views on Social Security and Medicare explained

On November 8, 2024By Littum

Upper line

Former President Donald Trump’s expected victory could affect Social Security and Medicare, as while the former president has publicly promised not to cut the benefit programs, experts have warned his policy proposals — including a tax cut on Social Security payments — could leave the programs running out of cash, with a analysis projecting that Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security’s funds faster than expected, in just six years.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on August 14 in Asheville, North Carolina.

Getty Images

Key facts

Trump and the Republican Party publicly pledged before the election not to cut Social Security or Medicare if Trump won the White House, with the GOP’s platform stating that the party will “fight for and protect Social Security and Medicare without cuts, including no changes to the retirement age.”

democrats seized comments Trump made in March, when the former president suggested he was open to cutting Social Security and Medicare, telling CNBC“There’s a lot you can do in terms of rights, in terms of pruning and also in terms of theft and mismanagement of rights.”

Trump’s campaign argued that the former president did not intend to insinuate that he wanted to cut entitlement programs, and spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told CNN he was “clearly talking about reducing waste, not entitlements” and said Trump “will continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.”

Trump has proposed eliminates the Social Security benefits tax that many seniors pay, since under current tax rules Social Security recipients are taxed on a certain percentage of their benefits, which varies based on income.

Social Security is already expected to do so become insolvent by 2034 and tax experts have wide criticized Trump’s proposal because they believe it will further speed up the timeline with the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget project that exempting benefits from taxes would result in Social Security and Medicare receiving $1.6 trillion less in revenue between 2026 and 2035 than if current rules remain in place, causing Social Security to become insolvent by 2032, followed by of Medicare in 2030 – one and six years respectively. faster than currently expected.

Coupling this exemption with other Trump proposals would cause Social Security to run out of cash even faster, CRFB believes projected in October, predicting Trump’s overall agenda — including eliminating tip and overtime taxes, raising rates and deporting undocumented immigrants — would add roughly $2.3 trillion to Social Security’s deficit and cause the program to become insolvent by fiscal year 2031.

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Chief critic

“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong over the years,” Leavitt said in a statement to Forbes after the group’s analysis was released, arguing that Trump “will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term.”

Surprising facts

In addition to draining America’s Social Security and Medicare funds faster, tax experts expect Trump’s proposed Social Security tax cut would not provide as much benefit to middle-class Americans. Social Security recipients earning between $32,000 and $60,000 annually will save only about $90 in taxes, according to to the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center, while the 1% of earners making $5 million or more would receive $2,500. The lowest income Americans, making less than $32,000, are already not taxed on their Social Security benefits, so they would not see a change.

How does immigration affect Social Security?

Leavitt argued to Forbes that Vice President Kamala Harris’ policy proposal threatened Social Security because if undocumented immigrants are “allowed to stay,” it would “cause Social Security to buckle and collapse.” The CFRB and other experts say the opposite is true, and that it is Trump’s plan for mass deportations that would actually hurt the entitlement program. Undocumented immigrants who are employed in paid U.S. jobs pay in Social Security, even though they won’t actually receive any money from it, ultimately bolsters the program’s coffers more than American citizens who take money from Social Security do. If these migrants are all deported, as Trump has proposed, that means Social Security will lose all the money they now contribute and worsen its financial problems. Office of the Social Security Administration’s Chief Actuary estimated in 2013, that undocumented immigrants contributed about $12 billion to Social Security in 2010, and the CFRB’s projection estimates that Trump’s deportation and tariff plans combined would cost Social Security anywhere between $300 billion and $750 billion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035.

What about Project 2025?

Harris and other Democrats have pointed to Project 2025 to suggest Trump would cut Social Security and Medicare if elected. The document, a 900-page policy agenda spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing groups, proposes a total overhaul of the executive branch by the next conservative administration. “Just look at his Project 2025 agenda,” Harris said in a speech that was also shared online by her campaign. “If elected, Donald Trump … intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.” Project 2025 does not explicitly call for cutting Social Security or Medicare entirely, although it does propose reforms to Medicare that include making Medicare Advantage, a paid supplement to Medicare, the “standard enrollment option.” Trump and his campaign have publicly denied any connection to Project 2025 — though he has ties to the Heritage Foundation and has praised its work in the past — and he would not be obligated to follow its political agenda if elected.

Key

Trump’s vice president, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, told The New York Times, before he was named Trump’s running mate, that he supports raising money for Social Security through a combination of getting more men back into the workforce, raising wages and raising rates. Through it, he argued, “I think you’re buying yourself a hell of a lot more than the nine or 10 years that the actuaries say we have.” It is unclear whether Trump shares these views on how to close a possible funding gap for Social Security, although the former president has proposed raising tariffs on imported goods. Tax experts have proposed However, raising tariffs would not raise a significant portion of government revenue, and the amount raised would likely be lower than expected because at least some Americans would stop buying imported goods as they would be more expensive.

Key background

The economy became a central issue in the November election, as polls repeatedly showed that it is the most important issue for voters, including Social Security. Trump touted his plan to repeal Social Security taxes on the campaign trail, sharing a campaign video on social media Monday claiming the former president “will make sure no one cuts Medicare or Social Security.” The left also attacked Trump for his views on Social Security and ran billboards in Asheville, North Carolina, in August that took aim at Trump over Social Security when he was scheduled to give a speech there on the economy. The billboards claimed that Trump plans to “cut funding, leave seniors behind and cut taxes for the ultra-wealthy,” according to The Hill, and coincided with the anniversary of the signing of the Social Security Act in 1935.