Hurricane Rafael’s unprecedented track for November?

Typically when we see a hurricane in the Gulf, the entire Gulf Coast holds its breath. However, Rafael is not raising any nerves at the moment because all signs point to the storm simply drifting in the Gulf into next week and possibly not making landfall at all.

However, Rafael is still worth watching. Here’s why:

If the storm tracks west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, it would be the only November hurricane to do so since 1851.

Hurricane Jeannein 1980, is the only November hurricane that resembles at least part of Rafael’s track outlook. Jeanne arrived in the Gulf of Mexico and then rapidly intensified to Category 2 strength in the southern Gulf.

“Like what will happen with Rafael, Jeanne was steered westward in the Gulf by upper-level high pressure to its north, but then lost its atmospheric steering wheel and slowed,” explained weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

By the time Jeanne traveled west of the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm had weakened to a tropical storm. In the end, a cold front and dry air meant Jeanne’s eventual death.

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Why Rafael’s tracks are so rare

O f only six other previous Gulf hurricanes in Novemberfive of them were in the eastern Gulf.

“We typically don’t have western Gulf storms in November because the jet stream usually gets stronger over the southern United States and most of the Gulf,” Erdman said. “The stronger jet usually either pushes November storms toward Florida, the Caribbean Sea or rips them apart.”

of 287 hurricanes which made only one mainland in the US database in NOAA’s database four of them did so in November. Most recently, Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.

But cold fronts typically don’t make it all the way through Florida in November, leaving an opening of opportunity in the Sunshine State. That’s why if a storm forms or moves into the Gulf of Mexico in November, Florida is the most likely landfall.

What does Raphael control?

Rafael’s future trajectory is getting more interesting by the day. It is expected to weaken and slow down. Meanwhile, another ridge of high pressure may form to its west or northwest, which will help pull it southwest into early next week.

“If it survives the dry air, the southwesterly jog could move it into an area of ​​lower wind shear, meaning it could survive well into next week in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” Erdman explained. Addendum: “A November storm this far southwest in the Gulf of Mexico would be unprecedented in the historical database dating to the mid-19th century.”

Typical impact zones for November storms

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every 1 to 2 years and a hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

More often, it is parts of the Caribbean and Central America that have been hit hard by the November hurricanes.

If a storm develops in November, it usually happens in the western Caribbean or either the southwest or central Atlantic. This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south, and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.

But just like we’ve seen with Rafael, hurricane season doesn’t always play by the book – anything is possible.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has covered some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the past two decades.