A precinct-by-precinct breakdown charting how Trump won Pennsylvania

President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory was driven by an overall voter shift in most places and most demographics compared to 2020 — with a new analysis of district data in crucial Pennsylvania coloring further detailing how Trump won.

The NBC News Decision Desk collected and monitored precinct-level voting results in 50 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, totaling more than 8,300 of the state’s roughly 9,000 precincts. This detailed data provides a detailed look at what happened from neighborhood to neighborhood and block to block in the nation’s largest battleground state.

On average, Pennsylvania precincts shifted 1.6 percentage points toward Republicans and 1.6 points away from Democrats—a swing of 3.2 points overall that flipped Pennsylvania from a 1-point Democratic victory in 2020 to a Republican victory of about 2 points in 2024.

The chart below shows the difference between Trump’s 2020 vote percentage and his 2024 percentage in Pennsylvania districts. Dots above the dashed black line are areas where Trump fared better than his vote share four years ago. The red line shows the average shift in Trump support from 2020 to 2024.

On average, Trump improved his 2020 vote share in nearly every area in Pennsylvania, except those where he had already received more than 80% of support in 2020. Trump’s strongest improvements came in places where he received 20% to 30% of the vote in 2020 — meaning he managed to lose significantly less in what had been heavily Democratic corners of the state.

Trump’s outperformance in Democratic areas was evident when looking at district results in the Philadelphia metro area — a key region for Biden’s 2020 victory. In 2024, voters in Philadelphia and its four suburban collar counties made up just under 33% of all voters in the state.

The map shows that nearly all of the region’s 3,100 precincts shifted their votes in Trump’s favor. While there are a few precincts that moved in Harris’ favor (shown in blue on the map), Trump improved his 2020 vote share in 82% of the region’s precincts.

While Harris and Biden both won this region comfortably, Harris’ margin was nearly 120,000 votes less than Biden’s. It’s a significant drop: Biden won the state by 82,000 votes in 2020.

The regional map also shows that the areas where Trump improved the most were heavily concentrated in the city of Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia map at left shows that Harris comfortably won the vast majority of the city’s 1,700 precincts. But the right side shows that Harris underperformed Biden’s margins, with nearly 84% of the city’s precincts shifting toward Trump.

On average, Trump did 2 percentage points better in Philadelphia districts — overall, matching his improvement in the rest of the state. But there are important differences in different types of neighborhoods.

The largest of these shifts occurred in North and Northeast Philadelphia neighborhoods with high concentrations of Spanish-speaking residents. This is further evidence of a recurring pattern in pre-election polls and the NBC News Exit Poll, which showed Trump significantly improving his vote share among Latino voters around the country, including in Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the blue areas that shifted toward Harris in Northwest and Central/South Philadelphia (including the very dense, downtown region of Center City) are neighborhoods with the highest concentration of college-educated residents. NBC Exit Poll results showed Trump’s support among this group in Pennsylvania down 3 percentage points from his 2020 level.