NFL ‘Thursday Night Football’ picks, odds, bets

On By Littum

Primetime games have become notorious for low-scoring football, and “Thursday Night Football” is no exception.

On Thursday night, the Unders have hit a clip of 60.2% over the past six years.

While “TNF” games have produced five Overs and four Unders this season, a look at the injury report for this match will show you why the market is starting to buy back the Under.

The Ravens come into this matchup off a big comeback win over the Broncos.

Baltimore’s offensive prowess was on full display, but it will struggle to repeat that success against the Bengals.

Cincinnati’s defense entered the season underrated, but has become one of the best units against the rush. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL in yards per carry. allowed rush.

The Bengals will have a lot to contend with in the ground game as Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have combined to give the Ravens the best rushing attack in football.

However, Jackson is beat up and has multiple injuries, and Henry has become non-existent at times if the play script doesn’t go in his favor.


Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers runs for a touchdown after catching a pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers runs for a touchdown after catching a pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Baltimore. AP

Baltimore has also been excellent through the air.

The connection between Jackson and Zay Flowers is undeniable.

But according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, Cincinnati should have an answer there as well, as Flowers is the only pass catcher with an above-average matchup.

Stream the game live Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video

On the other side of the ball, we’ll see how injuries compound problems in a short week.

The Bengals have a ton of injuries on their offensive line, are down to Chase Brown and newly acquired Khalil Herbert at running back, and will likely be without wide receiver Tee Higgins.

Joe Burrow overcame these problems last week by erecting an air screen.

Bet on the NFL?

Burrow and Co. should find success against a hampered Ravens secondary that ranks 28th in yards per carry. passes allowed and 19th in opponent completion percentage.

However, it might not be that easy, as they don’t get much movement on the ground.

As mentioned, the Bengals offensive line is in dire straits, and the Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per rush in football, while the Bengals are 20th in yards before contact.

With the rushing attack under wraps, the Ravens should be able to emphasize wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and tight end Mike Gesicki, both of whom have above-average matchups.


Chase Brown is now the lead back for Cincinnati.
Chase Brown is now the lead back for Cincinnati. Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Getting this Under at the current number will be beneficial as we should see it drop closer to the Sunday opener (50.5).

The market’s initial upside is justified as there is excellent offensive talent, and these two teams combined for 79 points in their Week 5 matchup, a 41-38 Ravens overtime win in Cincinnati.

All the factors broken down above point to this second meeting having very different results.

THE GAME: Bengals-Ravens Under 53 (-125, BetMGM).

Why Trust New York Post Bets

Doug Ziefel has been betting for over a decade with US operators in his native New Jersey since the market launched in 2018. He helps new players get the most out of their sportsbook promotions and New York Post welcome offers.