Trump and Kamala Harris could face recounts in those states after tomorrow’s race

On November 7, 2024By Littum

Upper line

With polls showing a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states, it is possible that states may have to hold recounts after Election Day if there is only a narrow margin that separates the two politicians – or the losing candidate could demand one.

A protester holds a sign that says Count Every Vote during a rally in support of Donald Trump … (+) in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, on November 11, 2020.

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Key facts

Arizona: The state will order a mandatory recount in accordance with state law if the difference between the candidates’ share of the vote count is 0.5% or less (Trump currently has a 2.2 point lead according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averagebut President Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory was 0.3 points).

Georgia: Candidates can ask for a recount of the results if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between the candidates’ vote shares, and election officials and the Secretary of State can order a recount if errors or irregularities are suspected in the vote count (Trump lead by one pointbut lost by about 0.2 points in 2020).

Michigan: Under new rules it was signed for law in August, graduates in Michigan can request a recount “if the candidate is able to allege a good faith belief that the candidate would have had a reasonable chance of winning the election but for an error in the canvass or return of the votes.”

Nevada: Unless the election is tied, only the losing candidate can request a recount in Nevada, which must be conducted within three days of the vote count being certified, but does not require any specific margin between the candidates.

North Carolina: Candidates can request a recount below state law if there is a 1% or less difference between their share of the vote and the winning candidate (Trump is one point upand won by 1.3 points in 2020).

Pennsylvania: The state orders mandatory recounts if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between the candidates, and voters can also request narratives for specific areas which must allege a specific instance of fraud or error, or – if there is no specific allegation of fraud – must be requested in each area where the specific race took place (the polls are is exactly boundand Biden won by 1.2 points in 2020).

Wisconsin: Candidates who have lost one percent or less can request a recount based on a belief that a “specified defect, irregularity, or illegality occurred in the conduct of the election”—but if the losing candidate asks for a recount only in some areas of the state but not others, any challenger in race can ask that the rest of the state reproduce its results as well.

Where are accounts most likely?

It remains to be seen what the final vote tally will be and which states will hold recounts, as polls in all seven of the major battleground states suggest the election results will be extremely close. Pennsylvania and Nevada have particularly narrow margins, with average compiled by FiveThirtyEight, showing the two candidates are within 0.5% of each other in those states based on recent polls.

Could reports delay election certification?

Recounts are ordered after states have certified their election results — meaning all votes have been counted and finalized — so any recount would not prevent a state from being called for either Trump or Harris. While the specific deadlines for recounts vary by state, candidates are required to request recounts promptly within a few days of the results being certified. That means recounts can be conducted and completed without disrupting election margins and well before Congress certifies the final results on January 6. In Georgia, for example recertified Biden’s 2020 victory in the state in early December 2020 after conducting both a machine recount and an audit of the state’s results that involved a hand count.

Will reports change the election result?

Although recounts can influence election results, in practice this is quite rare. The non-partisan group FairVote, which advocates ranked choice, completed a review of all recounts between 2000 and 2023. It found that only 36 recounts across the country had taken place in general elections in that period – out of 6,929 total races – with only three recounts actually overturning the election result. These reversals all occurred in races where there was less than a 0.06% difference between the candidates. FairVote noted that recounts typically change about 551 votes on average and often increase the gap between candidates rather than narrow it.

Key background

Polls show Harris and Trump nearly tied ahead of Election Day, with a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight On Monday, Harris showed a 48%-46.8% increase. It is widely expected that the race will not be called on Election Day itself, and the results are likely to repeat 2020, when it took several days for the race to be called for Biden as election results were narrowly split in battleground states. Reports were completed in 2020 in Georgia and in some Wisconsin counties, and Biden’s margin changed during the Georgia audit, though neither account ultimately affected the final results. In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein requested recounts in three battleground states after Trump won the presidential election, though only Wisconsin ended up actually conducting the recount. Stein later the fall her retelling requests which cost her nearly $5 million to file.