Early data suggests Tyler Herro is embracing his new valuable role

The Miami Heat have gotten off to a familiar rocky start. 3-3 doesn’t seem bad on the surface, but when you peel back the layers, you realize the Heat have only beaten bottom feeder teams. To make matters worse, the Heat haven’t beaten a “good” team since April 2. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler haven’t shown consistent greatness, third-quarter meltdowns resurface every game and starters are -20.89 in 79 minutes combined.

There hasn’t been much to hang one’s hat on other than Tyler Herro taking another leap. And this jump is best for Miami Heat and Herro’s valuable league in the whole world.

The “Make Tyler Herro a sixth man” conversation has been muted this season. Herro has arguably been the best player on the team, although he has struggled a bit in the second half of games. Herro has been more aggressive in attacking closeouts and getting two feet in the paint and has fully embraced this off-ball role. The drives and rim trials have been fun as Herro shoots 69% at the cup. That number may be down, but his process and mindset turned up the heat for successful offensive possessions. We love the drives, but the catching and shooting will take Herro to the next level.

Herro said he wanted to drop the ball more this year, and he’s been a man of his word. He is third on the heat in touches per. game at 57.7 and is making 53% of his shots from 3 (a career high). Herro lets it fly more off the catch than he dribbles into traffic to get out of his tough, self-made middies.

Those shots have a place in this offense, but aren’t the main ingredient in Herro’s current game. He stretches the defense, shooting a whopping 48% on 5.2 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. The accuracy isn’t a new development, but Herro had never shot more than four catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts before this year. There is tremendous value in a high-volume 3-point shooter with driving chops.

We all remember the summer of 2023, when Tyler Herro faced significant scrutiny. He was key in a potential trade for Damian Lillard. Fans and team executives were unsure of how valuable Herro was as an undersized, short-arm combo guard. Teams weren’t lining up to trade for a max contract player who wasn’t ultra efficient, struggled to drive to the rim and didn’t excel defensively. While concerns about his defense remain valid, criticism regarding his effectiveness is diminishing.

Herro has consistently shot nearly 40% from 3-point range throughout his career, which will continue as he increases his volume. Herro is currently shooting 44% on 8.7 3PA. Those attempts should reach ten as he embraces this off-ball catch-and-shoot role. This improvement will make Herro more efficient (his 60.8 eFG% would be a career high) and more appealing to teams around the league. Sure, he’ll never lock down number one options like Klay Thompson did during the Golden State dynasty, but Herro can replicate Klay’s volume shooting with more off-the-dribble juice. If he continues to put up these prime Klay Thompson-like numbers, there will never be another conversation about how valuable Tyler Herro is.

Statistics per 11/05/2024 via Cleaning The Glass, NBA.com, Basketball Reference and PBP Stats