Hurricane Rafael strengthens to a Category 3 storm. Where is it going next?

Hurricane Rafael has strengthened to a Category 3 storm as it continues to approach Cuba, where it is expected to make landfall later Wednesday, November 6 – but forecasters say the storm’s path will become more unpredictable once it arrives into the Gulf of Mexico.

As the storm approached Cuba, the National Hurricane Center shared in a Wednesday afternoon update that Rafael had intensified and became a Category 3 hurricane.

The storm is expected to bring a “life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds and flash flooding to parts of western Cuba,” according to officials, who also warned that “there are greater uncertainty than usual regarding Rafael’s intensity later in the forecast period.”

Rafael became a hurricane on Tuesday, November 5, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, according to AccuWeather. Hours later, winds had increased to 100 mph.

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But with another “non-tropical storm” in the south-central United States, forecasters say there’s a big window for where it’s headed next.

“Once you’re in the Gulf of Mexico, small differences in Rafael’s intensity and atmospheric steering winds can have a significant impact on its final track,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger.

If it does make landfall in the United States this weekend, the highest likelihood is along the Louisiana coast, according to the outlet.

But the hurricane could also track west across the Gulf – or fall apart completely.

“It is also possible that Rafael will be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and disappear into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,” Deger added.

Although the storm is not expected to make landfall in Florida, rain could be a problem for the Florida Keys, as well as possible tornadoes. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for the lower and middle Florida Keys, according to The news press.