See latest path, spaghetti models to storm

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen and is expected to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday. according to the National Hurricane Center.

Rafael was located about 160 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday morning, the NHC said. The storm is moving northwest, and a “general northwesterly motion” is expected over the next day or two, followed by a west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.

“On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba later today,” NHC forecasters said in an advisory Wednesday morning. “Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.”

Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds near 100 mph with higher gusts and rapid strengthening is expected, the hurricane center said. The storm could be “near major hurricane intensity” before it makes landfall, and while Rafael is expected to weaken over Cuba, it is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

Rafael brushed west of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, with authorities opening four emergency shelters but reporting no deaths or injuries despite the heavy rain.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas of the western Caribbean until early Thursday, especially across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba, according to the NHC. Rainfall totals between 4 and 7 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches in areas of higher terrain.

The Florida Keys could see consequences starting Wednesday

The hurricane center said tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are also expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys, with a few tornadoes also possible for the area and for the extreme southwest Florida mainland.

What about the Gulf Coast?

With uncertainty in the long-term forecast, the NHC said it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to parts of the northern Gulf Coast. By the end of the week, swells are expected to spread over most of the Gulf.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle around the weekend, according to AccuWeatherwhich said the highest likelihood of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast as a tropical storm. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving over the west coast of Mexico.

The good news: Dry air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf is expected to weaken the hurricane as it approaches the US mainland. “This will not be a situation where there is an intensifying major hurricane that makes landfall in the United States, but rather something less intense in terms of wind intensity,” AccuWeather’s weather forecast says.

Hurricane Rafael path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

Illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].