Choices: Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided nation

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump scored a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. And in doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and beat back concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first US president with a felony conviction.

The Republican former president won over frustrated voters with bold promises that his fiery brand of America-first economic populism and conservative culture would make their lives better. However, he will be tested immediately, and there is reason to believe that his plans for mass deportations and huge tariffs could hurt the very people who made his victory possible.

Yet he is set to enter the White House on January 20, 2025 from an undisputed position of strength. With votes still being counted, he could become the first Republican in two decades to win the popular vote.

The results left Democrats facing an urgent and immediate showdown, with no clear leader to unify the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild as a emboldened Trump prepares to retake Washington.

Here are some key takeaways:

With modest shifts, Trump is undermining the Democrats’ coalition

Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and in recent years, Latinos and young voters have joined them.

All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggested Trump made significant gains.

Voters under the age of 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about a third in 2020.

At the same time, black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to support Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 black voters supported Harris, down from about 9 in 10 who supported Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was a slight drop from the roughly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among these groups appeared to be up slightly compared to 2020. Overall did these small gains have an overall result.

Trump’s focus on immigration, the economy and culture worked

For all the showmanship, profanity and name-calling, Trump ultimately won over voters with big promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants at the southern border and his siren call to “make America great again.”

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He also appealed to religious voters in both parties by seizing on Democrats’ support for the transgender community.

Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue factoring into their voting decisions. About the same number said that about the situation at the US-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.

He explored the fact that by many conventional measures the economy is robust — inflation is largely in check and wages are up — while border crossings have fallen dramatically. He talked straight past the facts and through relentless repetition convinced the voters.

He also sold them on the promise of the largest mass deportation effort in American history, though he has not explained how such an operation would work. And he is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other US adversaries, which economists warn could dramatically raise prices for average Americans.

In the end, Trump’s victory may have had as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Faced with deep voter frustration with the direction of the country — with Biden’s dismal approval rating — she never distanced herself from her party’s incumbent president. Although Trump has now been the central figure in American politics for nine years, he convinced voters that he represented change.

Trump will take charge of a deeply divided nation

Trump is poised to inherit a nation with deepening political and cultural fissures and a worried electorate.

When asked what most influenced their vote, about half of the voters cited the future of democracy. This was higher than the proportion who answered in the same way about inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it crosses over the two major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their votes.

That’s not surprising given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.

Refusing to concede defeat in 2020, Trump saw his supporters ransack the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress met to confirm Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump even considered two days before election day that he “shouldn’t have gone” The White House after repeatedly promising retaliation to its political enemies.

At the end of the campaign, Harris joined other critics – including some of Trump’s former White House chief of staff – in describing the former president as a “fascist”. Trump, meanwhile, labeled Harris a “fascist” and a “communist.”

Trump’s criminal record is not a problem for many voters

Incomplete feedback shows that Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending charges and any concerns about his most incendiary rhetoric simply weren’t enough of a concern to keep tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

According to AP VoteCast, slightly more than half of voters said Harris has the moral character to be president, compared to about 4 in 10 who said that about Trump. It’s quite possible, as Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, that his legal peril actually helped him.

As it stands, Trump is never actually at risk of being convicted in a New York business fraud case where he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now his sentencing is scheduled until later this month.

He has already had a federal charge dismissed in Florida, sparing him a trial over whether he violated the US National Security Secrets Act. And he has made it clear that he would use his power as president to jumpstart the federal case against him for his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. That would leave a racketeering lawsuit in Georgia against Trump and others accused of trying to undermine the 2020 election.

‘Bridge’ policy knocks out abortion issues

It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ending a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. It was also the first time that a Republican presidential candidate excessively courted men with a hypermasculine approach.

But the resulting “gender gap” wasn’t enough to sink Trump.

About half of women supported Harris, while about half of men went for Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That seems to be broadly in line with the stocks for Biden and Trump in 2020.

Democrats are facing a leadership crisis with an urgent need to regroup

Just a few months ago, Harris created incredible excitement across the party. She raised more than a billion dollars seemingly overnight. She dominated her debate with Trump. She filled arenas. And a few days ago, a massive crowd drew to the Ellipse and the National Mall.

But in the end it wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, Republicans have claimed control of the Senate, ousting veteran Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and brought several other Democratic incumbents to the brink of defeat. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Their only hope is to win a House majority built mainly through key suburbs in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

And either way, the results shrink the Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Brown’s loss, diminish the kind of working-class vote that can counter Trump’s appeal.

Trump has already succeeded in painting Democrats as culturally out of touch with Middle America. Now Democrats are left wondering how to reconnect with parts of the country and parts of the electorate that rejected them.

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