Who is leading the battle – Trump or Harris?

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Upper line

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively an Election Day tossup, with pre-election polls in all seven swing states showing single-digit margins — and crucial Pennsylvania virtually tied.

Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during a presidential debate in Philadelphia d … (+) September 10.

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

Nevada: This one is also a tossup-Trump is up by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight average, but Times/Siena vote shows Harris leading 49%-46%, and YouGov has Harris up 48%-47%, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%.

Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump edge—he has a 0.7-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, and he leads 50-49% in Emerson’s vote50%-48% in Morning consultation survey and 48%-46% in the YouGov poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% according to the Times/Siena poll.

North Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage – he leads by 0.9 points FiveThirtyEight’s dataand is ahead 49%-48% according to Emerson, 49%-47% according to Morning Consult and 48%-47% per YouGov, though Harris leads 48%-46% in Times/Siena map out.

Michigan: It’s a Harris edge-margin-of-error — she leads by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data, 50%-48% in Emerson’s poll, 49%-48% in Morning Consult’s survey, and 47%-45% according to YouGov, but de Even at 47% in the New York Times/Siena map out.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage — she’s up by 1.1 points per FiveThirtyEightand she leads Trump by 48%-45% according to YouGov and 49%-47% per Times/Siena, but they are tied at 49% in Emerson’s poll, and Morning Consult has Trump leading by about one point.

Arizona: That’s the largest lead of any swing state and still extremely close — Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, leading 49%-45% according to the Times/Siena, 50%-48% per Emerson and 48%-47% according to YouGov, although Morning Consult found a tie at 48%.

When do the polls close in the swing states?

The first swing state to finish voting will be Georgia at 7 p.m. EST, followed by North Carolina at 7:30 p.m., and Pennsylvania and large parts of Michigan at 8 p.m. Voting ends at 9 p.m. EST in Wisconsin, the rest of Michigan and Arizona, while Nevada closes out the swing states at 10 p.m. However, counting ballots and releasing results could take a while – Georgia and North Carolina should start releasing numbers soon, while Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could take longer. Check here for an hour-by-hour primer.

big number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national poll average.

Who do you prefer to win the election?

It is basically a vomit. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance of winning and Trump a 49% chance, while statistician Nate Silver set Harris’s odds at 50% and Trump’s at 49.6%. If the poll averages above are even on the money in all seven swing states, Harris will win by a narrow margin — but the polls could easily be off, and even a small error in either direction could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa a swing state?

Probably not – but a new poll out on Saturday has raised some people’s eyebrows. Noted pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s sterling reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the survey’s findings — which suggested women, independents and older voters have swung heavily toward Trump — will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.

Key background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid a party uproar in the wake of his debate performance — dramatically changing the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the switch, polls consistently found Trump beating Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.