America’s era of violent populism

The US government is headed for a major crisis of legitimacy – that is, a weak or even fractured consensus among the American people about whether their representatives in Washington really deserve their allegiance. This crisis is not one that the presidential election is likely to resolve, and it may well lead to more contentious and violent politics in the coming months and years.

As I argued recently in Foreign AffairsAmerican politics has entered an era of violent populism, with historically high levels of political violence on both the right and the left that have worsened for years. This trend is largely driven by the country’s ongoing transition from a white majority to a white minority society. The panic and complaints (real and imagined) that have accompanied this demographic shift help explain Donald Trump’s meteoric rise, as well as the bipartisan focus on immigration.

The 2024 presidential election season has been the most violent since 1968 — a year marked by nationwide protests against racism at home and militarism abroad and marred by the assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr., and Robert Kennedy, a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. This year has seen two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, as well as threats against election officials across the country. And if Trump loses, many Americans fear he will reject the results and incite violence to topple them, as he did after the 2020 election, an effort that culminated in an insurgent riot at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 .

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen, with growing polarization, gridlock in decision-making in Washington, and increasing risk of political upheaval. American states may attempt to prevent the implementation of national policies that conflict with the views of their constituents. And the country’s internal political turbulence will compromise Washington’s ability to provide leadership on the world stage.

A LEGITIMATE CRISIS

As the democratic theorist David Eastman explained in 1965, legitimacy involves more than a belief that governmental processes are followed; it involves “a strong inner conviction about the moral validity of the governing authority”. A government is legitimate when its citizens accept that it rightfully holds and exercises power, when public institutions are free from corruption, and when government officials adhere to democratic norms.

The US was already on the brink of a crisis of legitimacy before the election. According to national surveys by the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, public confidence in American democracy has been at a troubling level throughout 2024. Nearly half of the population (45 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans) believe that “elections will not solve America’s most fundamental political and social problems.” Almost as many (42 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Republicans) believe that “political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.”

The most worrying thing is that the public is sharply divided on how the outcome of the election will affect democracy. Nearly nine in ten Democrats (86 percent) agree that Donald Trump is a “danger to democracy,” and two in three Republicans say “Kamala Harris is a danger to democracy.” Forty-four percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans worry that if their preferred presidential candidate loses, “people like me will be second-class citizens.”

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen.

Put differently, many Americans are concerned not only about short-term policies related to the economy, immigration, and health care, but also about the durability of American democracy itself. Many are deeply concerned about the health of public institutions, and many doubt that the outcome of this election will be a true expression of the will of the people.

If recent elections are any indication, those who support the losing candidate are likely to believe the winner is illegitimate. In one vote taken a week after the 2016 election, one-third of Democrats said they believed Trump’s victory was illegitimate. And to this day, according to vote after votea majority of Republicans believe that Trump was the true winner of the 2020 election.

The most troubling scenario for this election is also the most likely: a narrow initial victory by one side, leading to weeks of recounts and court challenges that raise suspicions about the final outcome. The news media may declare a winner relatively quickly after the polls close, but the perceived legitimacy of the new president may begin to erode from that point forward.

NO WAY OUT

The exact path Washington will take toward declining legitimacy depends on which candidate is declared the winner. If Kamala Harris wins, Trump and the right-wing media will likely claim that there has been mass voter fraud. As in the lead-up to the 2020 elections, they have already sown this claim in the form of allegations and lawsuits against the legitimacy of certain voters in key states. The difference is that many of Trump’s supporters have become more skeptical and more radical over the past four years. The number of Republicans who doubt Harris’s legitimacy may be significantly higher than those who doubted Biden’s. The immediate risks of Jan. 6-style mob violence and lone wolf attacks are significant, as more people would likely respond to Trump’s calls to “fight like hell.”

Even if Trump wins the Electoral College count, he is still likely to lose the popular vote. And so the more fundamental charge against him will be that he does not represent the general will of the people. An absence of immediate violence following a Trump victory should not be read as a sign of smooth sailing going forward. If Trump succeeds in launching the draconian mass deportation program he has proposed, it will require significant use of force by law enforcement agencies, which in turn could spark violent opposition. He may also follow through on his threat to deploy the US military against protesters.

Many political elites will remain committed to the next president, but others will take sides and reinforce voters who doubt the new government’s legitimacy. Far from paying a political penalty for election denial and his role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, Trump has benefited enormously from this behavior. Alas, this sends a dark message to future American political leaders: undermining the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy may ultimately recover, but its greatest test still lies ahead.

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