Allan Lichtman confirms the prediction for the 2024 presidential election

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Historian Allan Lichtman called Nate Silver’s final 2024 forecast, despite both predicting that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump.

Confirming his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump, historian Allan Lichtman called out his colleague Nate Silver, despite sharing the same predicted result.

Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, shared a post on X Monday says: “Nate Silver’s collection of polls is so unreliable that he now says it’s the luck of the draw who wins the presidency.”

The 77-year-old historian answers one X post shared by Silver on Monday explains how his final election forecast could be decided by “luck”.

“It could literally end up in the area where who is ‘ahead’ of our final forecast is determined by luck,” Silver’s post reads. “There is still a small amount of variance introduced by running ‘only’ 40,000 simulations (we driving 80,000 tonight but still…).”

Silver’s Bulletin Forecast vs. Lichtman’s ’13 Keys to the White House’

Silver final forecast for the 2024 presidential election had Harris as the winner by a razor-thin margin after she won 40,012 of the 80,000 total simulations.

Lichtman, on the other hand, uses his “13 Keys to the White House” system to determine who wins the election. He expressed his confidence in his system in a separate X post on Monday, writing: “Mark my words… The keys will be right again!”

Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. His only blemish came in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

‘I have a flock of crows in my stomach’

Especially in this election year, Lichtman said he’s quite nervous because of how fragile and relatively new democracy is.

“For the vast majority of human history, there has been almost no democracy,” Lichtman said in one live video interview with his son, Sam, on his YouTube channel. “People were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood. Democracy is a very recent development.”

In addition to his democracy comments, Lichtman said, “I’ve been doing this for 42 years, and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach. This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

What are Lichtman’s 13 Keys?

Lichtman’s”13 keys to the White House” includes:

Key 1 (Party mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Key 2 (Competition): There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination.
Key 3 (Establishment): The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Key 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Key 6 (Long-term economy): The real economic growth per population during the term is equal to or exceeds the average growth in the two previous periods.
Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Key 8 (Social unrest): There is no ongoing social unrest during the term.
Key 9 (Scandal): The current administration is untainted by major scandal.
Key 10 (Foreign/Military Failure): The incumbent administration does not suffer any major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Key 11 (Foreign/Military Success): The incumbent administration achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
Key 12 (Incumbent Charisma): The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenger party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.